News 12 Bronx/Brooklyn Weather Extra
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Evapotranspiration
Long word, but explains our situation. Take yesterday’s
perfect weather, add 3-5 degrees, and you’ll have today’s forecast.
Sunshine lasts all day with low humidity. Tomorrow cools off a bit with clouds
in the afternoon. Breezes will pick up as well. There is no significant
rain in the forecast through the rest of the month. Average highs for the
rest of September will likely keep September 2015 in the top 3 warmest
Septembers on records. Right now, we are #1. Remember, this past year
also had the warmest May and the 3rd warmest August. Most of
the excessive heat is due to the lack of rain. With more than 7 inches of
a rainfall deficit for the year, there’s a process called evapotranspiration
(ET) that usually keeps temperatures in check. Without the rain, the
extra water vapor or humidity that’s created from a wet ground isn’t there to
balance the act of the wide spread of day/night temperature changes. This
is why it’s so chilly most mornings, and very hot most afternoons—similar to a
desert climate.The warmer than average weather is forecast to last through
the middle of October.mike
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Watching Joaquin
Late tonight and tomorrow will be quite stormy. The muggy and mild air this morning is priming the atmosphere for tonight. Gusty winds, and heavy rains move in around 10pm and last until just before daybreak. With 3-4 inches of rainfall in that 6-hour window, flooding for tomorrow morning’s commute is very likely. Winds get gusty tomorrow evening and it remains quite windy through Saturday, with 50mph gusts or more on Friday night and Saturday due to Joaquin’s remnants. It’s tough to say how much rain this Saturday’s storm will bring (this early in the week, anyway), but high wind is very likely. The next time we see some sun is Sunday.
mike -
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Too soon! Too soon!
Plan on clouds and intermittent showers for the rest of the
day with very gusty winds. Winds could
gust as high as 35mph this afternoon and tonight, with a dramatic drop in
temperatures beginning after 2pm, when the front passes by. Tomorrow starts much colder, in the low 50s
with wind and clouds. The remainder of tomorrow is grey and chilly with highs
around 60—a typical October chill. Rain returns Friday; however, it’s not from
Joaquin. Hurricane Joaquin will become a
Cat 2 storm with gusts of 130 mph by Thursday night. Maps this morning show that Joaquin may take the
all-too-familiar path as Sandy did, but a better consensus on path should
happen by tomorrow, and hopefully by Friday. IT IS SIMPLY TOO SOON TO BE
CERTAIN ON A FORECAST REGARDING THIS HURRICANE.Due to all the uncertainties and low forecast confidence, nobody
should be panicking this early; however, it’s never too early to start planning
for 50mph winds and flooding rain—that’s the early indication of what COULD
happen here.mike
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Monster Storm
What we know:
Joaquin will strengthen to Cat 4 with 140mph sustained and
165 mph gusts today. It is currently decimating the East Bahamas with gusts of
150mph and waves of 34 feet, as high as a 3 story building. The track
differences are similar to yesterday; however, the some well-respected models
are trending further East, putting Joaquin’s landfall further north up the coast. The stubborn out-to-sea outlier from yesterday,
has nudged Joaquin a bit west, but not enough to strike any part of the U.S. To
complicate the matter: tidal flooding will occur at high tide for every cycle
through the weekend due to an the strong East wind (again, not due to the
hurricane). While there isn’t a
full-moon this weekend, like there was when Sandy struck, the pre-storm coastal
tidal flooding won’t make the impact forecast any easier.What we don’t know:
NYC is still dead center in the middle of the cone of
uncertainty, with the cone narrowing since last night. We’re pretty much in the
same boat as yesterday, and won’t know more until 3pm today at the earliest
(when the Euro finishes processing), and 4:50pm this evening at the latest (when the
new Hurricane Center track is issued). It’s still a waiting game.Until there’s a more confident forecast, plan on chilly
gusty winds today with clouds, and a cold rain with wind for tomorrow (not
Joaquin). As far as Sunday night and
Monday, coastal flooding and wind will be confident threats.mike
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Coastal Flooding
Part 1
As with any Nor’easter, wind, rain, cold, coastal flooding and
beach erosion are the primary impacts. The
boroughs will experience each and every one of those beginning today and
lasting through this weekend. 2” of rain
falls by tomorrow. Winds gust to 40mph today and this weekend. Air temperatures
will hold in the low 50s, dipping into the 40s tonight. Tides will be 1-2 feet
above normal high tides, around noon and midnight in Brooklyn, and around 3am/pm
in the Eastern and South Bronx. Ocean waves of 8-14 feet with batter Brooklyn
beaches. The Nor’easter part ends Sunday night.Part 2
Beach erosion due to rough ocean waves continue through
Monday due to Joaquin’s proximity. We are no longer in the cone, but that just
means the “eye” won’t be nearby. We’ll still get some clouds and wind from the
nearly 900mile wide storm on Monday and Tuesday—and maybe a rain band or two.-mike
Joaquin from Scott Kelly on International Space Station at
5:30 this morning:
NHC track
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Gusty Winds
A 40 mph gust was recorded at 6am this morning, and this
winds will continue at this pace though all day tomorrow. The coastal waters of Long Island Sound and
Jamaica Bay don’t have a chance to recede at low tide, due to the winds pushing
them in; therefore, every subsequent high tide cycle will be a bit higher, by a
half foot. The coastal flood advisory is
effective at every high tide cycle through tomorrow evening. Tides times are
below. The “atmospheric river” that Joaquin is creating, is pushing all the
rain inland. Our winds are due to a
pressure difference that’s the size of half the northern hemisphere—every large
weather system on the map is oriented in a way that gives us non-hurricane
related winds through tomorrow evening.Don’t expect more rain this weekend, just clouds, cold, and
wind. Winds diminish Monday and skies clear out Tuesday with the 7-day looking
gorgeous. -mike
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Warming Up!
After another day of clouds and wind, there won’t be any rain today; rather, a partial clearing this afternoon brings back some sun on Sunday afternoon. All coastal flooding threats and gale warnings end tonight as the wind finally shuts off. Tomorrow begins with clouds. Those are the clouds emanating directly from Joaquin’s eye. As the storm makes a hard right, those clouds are gone by tomorrow afternoon, and we’ll enjoy a sunny Monday afternoon. The rest of the upcoming week’s weather is quite pleasant with average highs around normal, in the low 70s. Low humidity every morning means crisp and cool starts every day.
mike -
Fall-ish
Once the morning clouds clear out, sunshine returns today. Just like yesterday afternoon had deep blue sky, this afternoon’s sunshine will help us warm to the upper 60s. The rest of this week is clear and dry with highs that return to several degrees above average midweek, low 70s.
A light rain chance is on the map for Friday, with a warm and humid feel, mid 70s. Temperatures return to average, with low humidity, as a dry, northerly wind clears out the skies for the weekend. Sunshine and mild weather lasts into Columbus Day.
mike -
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Warmer Week
Sunny afternoons, followed by chilly mornings is the perfect weather recipe for vivid foliage; however, the recent drought removes color from tree if it’s not watered by a persistent natural source (like a river or pond). While foliage will be vibrant along aquifers, most of the borough’s trees won’t have the same effect, and largely go straight to dull shades quickly, if they haven’t already. Some thin clouds arrive this evening, helping to create a picturesque sunset opportunity, as pink and orange fluoresce off the clouds. With all the sunshine forecast this week, high tomorrow will spike to 75, after another chilly morning in the mid-50s. This is about 8 degrees above average. Humidity rises for Friday with a damp feel as overcast skies return, with light rain Friday afternoon. We’ll be dry again by Saturday midday, and the rest of the weekend begins another prolonged stretch of dry, sunny weather, closer to the 65° average.
mike -
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Glowing Clouds
Tonight’s weather is sponsored by NASA, literally. A rocket launch from Virginia will be visible over the borough’s skies after 7pm. The mission is to study the high atmosphere, where weather balloons cannot fly. In order to do this, the rocket will release a Barium spray that will create “glowing clouds” over our night sky. Since sunset is 6:29 this evening, the effect will be amplified under clear sky. Tomorrow’s weather is similar to today’s: sunny and warm, high of 75. Friday starts cloudy. Rain arrives after 9am Friday and lingers into the evening commute. While sunshine will fill the weekend skies, the ground will be soggy for pumpkin or apple picking. Expect a cooler weekend in the 60s.
Columbus Day will start sunny, with afternoon clouds arriving. All of next week appears dry and warmer than the average high of 65.
mike -
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Less Vibrant
The recipe for maximum color during peak foliage begins with a very wet early summer (nope) and a dry end of summer/early fall (yep). This weather combo stresses the trees and gives promotes high sugar content in the leaves. More sugar, means deeper color! Since our weather has been less than ideal, foliage colors will be muted here in the city. However, most the rain that missed us these past few months, was steered north, providing all the rainfall necessary for brilliant colors in the Catskills and Adirondacks. Fall foliage is peaking in those spots this weekend.
Today’s weather mimics yesterday’s with sunny and warm weather until this evening. Clouds return tonight, starting an overcast day tomorrow. Rain arrives late morning/midday Friday, with the showers lasting through the evening commute. Tomorrow’s rain won’t feel chilly, though. A noticeable muggy and milder feel will take highs into the mid 70s on Friday, with a cooler breeze tomorrow night once the rain ends. Saturday, Sunday and Monday are crisp, clear and dry—closer to average in the mid 60s (but 49 on Sunday morning!)
After tomorrow, the next chance for a light shower is Tuesday.
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Warm and Humid
It’s not the weather headline you’d expect in the middle of October. Little sunshine today as clouds dominate, but warm and humid winds push highs into the upper 70s this afternoon. Muggy weather breaks after the brief rain begins by 4-5pm, and temperatures drop quickly after the rain is over, ending by 9pm. About ¾ to 1” of rain falls. Tomorrow starts very chilly in the mid 50s, but brings back dry sunshine and low humidity that lasts through Monday.
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Gradual Cooldown
Your senses might have a chance to adjust to the cooler weather that arrives this weekend, thanks to downhill steps that are spread out across the 7-day. The rest of the month is forecast to be cooler than average, with a big windy chill arriving this weekend. Once today’s clouds and spotty showers end by 10pm tonight, skies clear and temperatures cool into the 60s for tomorrow. Sunny, dry and seasonably cooler weather lasts until Friday, our next rain chance with another cooldown. The really big chill comes Saturday into Sunday with blustery north winds and highs in the low 50s. Flurries aren’t impossible this weekend as wind chills in gusts will hover around the point of freezing. Monday morning will be frosty, or at the very least: see-your-breath weather.
Next week warms to average: the low 60s.
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No Jacket Required
Morning sunshine thanks to clear skies begins Hump Day on a bright note. Despite some midday clouds today, this afternoon hours will be comfortable enough to leave the jacket at home. After a quick possible sprinkle around 3pm, the thickening overcast skies will leave the sky looking very dark beyond noon. Tomorrow is clear all day with a somewhat deeper morning chill in the low 50s. That’s still about 20 degrees warmer than the cold that is forecast for Monday morning. Friday will have a brief midday shower followed by a cold wind that sends afternoon highs Saturday crashing down in the low 50s. Once the winds calm on Sunday and dry air moves in, Monday morning lows have a good chance of reaching the mid to low 30s under mostly clear skies.
mike
