News 12 Weather Extra

News 12 Bronx/Brooklyn Weather Extra

  • Record Warmth, then Snowstorm.
    I’ll only use the term “storm” when referring to a snow event that’s high-impact and high-confidence.  On Thursday morning, there’s enough potential to have a mess on our hands, thus earning the “storm” title. First, today’s rain: steady showers and a chilly air have allowed freezing rain to fall briefly before dawn. Since then, temperatures warmed enough to let the freezing precip change back to plain rain. The remainder of this morning will be wet with steady showers into the afternoon. Rain ends tonight as the air continues to warm up. This is followed by fog on Wednesday morning with a temperature in the upper 40s. Sunshine returns on Wednesday allowing for highs to hit records in the mid 60s by midday. See chart below. Cold air rushes back in Wednesday night, allowing for snow to begin falling as soon as 1am Thursday.  The storm rapidly intensifies throughout the morning, putting several inches on the ground by 8am Thursday. (There’s enough time for the ground to cool off, supporting an accumulation) A clingy, wet snow, snowfall rates will reach 1 inch per hour during the height of the morning rush.  This means golf-ball sized flakes. This part of the storm should us around 4 inches of a sloppy, waterlogged accumulation by noon Thursday. There is potential for the storm to linger into the afternoon, but that question won’t be answered until tomorrow. That additional “lingering” may increase total accumulations a bit higher, and is part of the worst case scenario, listed below.
    Arctic air and wind on Friday will freeze everything in place.  Snow will only melt where the sun hits on Friday as wind chills will be in the single digits and highs will be well below the freezing point. Melting continues into the weekend.
  • Clouds, fog and rain took us through Tuesday. There are additional clouds, showers and fog as well as rising temperatures in the forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday. The record for February 8th is 61 degrees set in 1965. The forecast high for Wednesday is 60 degrees which should be reached by noon if not before. Temperatures will begin to fall during Wednesday afternoon as snow moves across the borough late Wednesday night / early Thursday morning. Make an earlier than average start for the Thursday morning commute as there could be as much as 1 to 3 inches on the ground as many are heading off to work and school. Light to moderate snow can be expected through much of the day with the snow ending during the late afternoon / early evening hours. Snowfall estimates currently range from 6 to 8 inches. As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH from 12am to 6pm Thursday.

  • Worst Case Scenario Very Likely.
    There’s remarkable agreement (regarding timing, rates and totals) among the modeling suite that tomorrow’s storm will over-perform. With snow beginning as early as 1am, the real mess begins around 4am with rapid intensification. By 7am tomorrow, there will already be several inches on the ground, with 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates lasting through 11am. The worst of tomorrow’s storm will be first light, through noon. The heavy snow is only one component of tomorrow’s storm: other impacts include reduced visibility, and bitter cold.  For instance, wind chills will be in the single digits during the event. Anticipate at least a half foot by noon, with another few powdery inches on top tomorrow afternoon thanks to colder air arriving throughout the day. All snow is done by 2 or 3pm. See charts below.  Sunshine and very cold air immediately follow.  Wind chills will be remain in the single digits through Friday morning.
    As far as today’s record warmth and sunshine: tomorrow’s initial accumulation should not be impacted from the warm ground because the snow will fall so rapidly.
  • It’s been an interesting two days for the city as we went from record breaking high temperatures on Wednesday to the biggest snow storm so far this winter. The snow began during the very early morning hours of Thursday, leaving 7 to 10.6 inches of snow by Thursday afternoon. Now, bitterly cold temperatures will make for widespread freezing to any surfaces that are not cleared overnight through Friday night. The good news is that a warm-up is in the forecast for this weekend and early next week as highs climb to the 40s.

  • Frozen.
    Today is one of those days when the sun melts whatever snow and ice it hits, but the subsequent meltwater refreezes to clear ice when it drips into the shade. Wind chills are in the single digits this morning, and actual highs climb to only 28° with mostly sunny skies this morning. Clouds increase through the afternoon. Tomorrow is partly sunny with highs in the low 40s, with light rain moving in for Sunday.  More cold air puts us back around freezing with brutal wind chills on Monday thanks to gusts to 40 mph starting next week. The weather stays cold, but storm-free through next week.
  • The abbreviated work and school week ended under a mostly sunny sky and highs from the low to mid-30s.These condition allowed for snow and ice melt from Thursday’s snow storm. Unfortunately, we’ll have overnight lows that will be below freezing so one more night of widespread refreezing. A warm front will bring warmer temperatures for Saturday followed by a rainy Sunday. Yes, Sunday will be a mess due to the rain and highs in the low to mid-40s providing additional snow and ice melt. Next week looks pretty good with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s under a mix of sun and clouds.

    Have a safe and pleasant weekend!

  • Cold and Windy.
    High winds will remain gusty through this morning, subsiding later this afternoon. Gusts have already peaked at 41 mph, and could gust as high as 50 by noon. Even though air temperatures remained above freezing all night and will remain so today, wind chills feel like the 20s throughout today. Colder air sweeps in for the rest of the week with a mix of sun and clouds today through Wednesday.  Thursday’s wind brings flurries as that next storm misses us completely, just providing some extra clouds during the day, Thursday.  Very mild weather (60s) with sunshine returns for the weekend.
  • We started the new work and school week under a WIND ADVISORY that was later upgraded to a HIGH WIND WARNING due northwest winds gusting from 48 mph at Central Park, 61 mph at La Guardia and 62 mph at JFK. These winds came from a coastal storm that brought heavy snow to New England earlier on Monday. We’ll have diminishing winds and a mostly clear sky overnight. Valentine’s Day Tuesday looks like a nice day under a mostly sunny sky, westerly winds from 5 - 15 mph and temperatures either side of 40 degrees. Other than a slight chance of a rain/snow shower Wednesday, this will be a quiet weather week with highs in the 30s and 40s. Get ready for a warm-up this weekend and early next week as highs reach the 40s and 50s.

  • Big Temperature Swings.
    Without the drama of a winter storm, snow or ice, the rest of the week will have big temperatures swings while the sun and wind are forecast to be the only players on the field.  Clear sky will help the air warm to the 40s for today and tomorrow. Cold winds return for Thursday and Friday, with those gusty winds and sunshine ending the work week. Gusts will not be as high as the 62mph around noon yesterday; however, wind chills will drop to the low teens Thursday and Friday mornings. Weekend weather is much milder and calm with 60° likely by Sunday afternoon. Early next week remains sunny and much warmer than average.
  • Winds Return.
    This afternoon’s winds won’t be as damaging as Monday’s; however, gusts could still reach 35mph later tonight. With a northwest direction, that means wind chill will be in the teens for tomorrow and Friday mornings. Morning clouds and a milder than average start today leads to pleasantly mild midday.  Around 3pm today, winds begin to gust suddenly, and passing showers develop. Any light rain or flurries ends by 7pm. After the shock of bitter cold and wind through Friday, Saturday warms nicely with nothing but sunshine. Sunday will probably tie the old record of 66° set in 1997 thanks to full sunshine and a warm SW wind. Mild weather with sunshine remains for Monday. The next round of active weather returns late next week.
  • Our weather for “hump-day” began under a mostly cloudy sky with a brief period of partial clearing followed by a little light rain and gusty winds Wednesday evening. The gusty winds will be with us through the overnight as temperatures fall to either side of 30 degrees. However, it will feel like the upper teens and low 20s by the Thursday morning wake-up, due to an active westerly wind. Thursday’s high will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the highs of 47, 50 and 45 for Central Park, La Guardia and JFK. We climb out of the 30s through the 50s by Saturday and we have a good chance of reaching 60 degrees by Sunday. Yes, we have a great weekend ahead of us that extends into Presidents’ Day on Monday with highs in the mid-50s under a fair sky.

  • Chilly Winds.
    Colder weather with sunshine moves in today. Gusty winds howl up to 35 mph bringing the wind chill down into the teens this morning and tomorrow morning. Very mild weather takes over for the weekend with full sunshine.  Highs will be in the 60s on both Saturday and Sunday. Clear and calm weather lasts into early next week. Our next chance of rain is in about a week…but another round of warm air with sunshine arrives for next weekend.
  • Get ready for a run of nice weather for the boroughs through the Presidents’ Day holiday weekend. High pressure north of the eastern Great Lakes will slip east and dominate our weather as winds come from the west-southwest. This is a warmer wind that will push our daytime highs through the 40s and 50s with highs in the low 60s by Sunday. Temperatures cool the low and mid-50s for Presidents’ Day. Dry weather remains through Wednesday.

  • Done With the February Cold.
    Once the wind relaxes at noon, the sun quickly warms us into the mid 40s this afternoon. That will feel much better than the 16° wind chill at dawn this morning. The remainder of February will feature temperatures that are well above average, even record setting at times. Full sunshine will last everyday through Tuesday.  The air will be sinking high above our heads during this time period, making it impossible for clouds to form. (Clouds needs rising air to develop.) The next chance for rain is Wednesday. Despite a brief cooler feel on Monday and Tuesday, even warmer air returns later next week with highs peaking into the upper 60 by next Saturday. Too bad that it’s going to rain next weekend. As far as the drought situation: the reservoir system is within 8% of normal thanks to above average precip for the last two months.
  • Winter Weather is Over.
    The Spring-like pattern that emerged this weekend remains into early March. Other than a few chilly mornings here and there, no more prolonged outbreaks of deep cold are forecast in the long range. Even accumulating snow will be hard to find. Normal early March tends to surprise with last-minute, late-forecast rain/snow mix events, but anything worthy of a plow has a very low chance of occurring moving forward. After all, what’s normal now anyway? New records were set at every climate reporting station in the area yesterday, except for Central Park, missing by 1 degree. See chart below. Today and tomorrow are cooler with closer to seasonable average highs. Tomorrow night has light rain returning, and damp weather with a cloudy start is likely on Wednesday. Thursday is sunny, but Friday is warmer as clouds move in with a warm front allowing highs to reach new records again for later this week. Thunderstorms arrive Saturday (timing to be determined later this week) bringing temperatures back down into the 40s to start next week.
  • Record Warmth Forecast.
    The February chill that returned this morning won’t last very long. Starting today, the weather adds 10 degrees each day until we reach near 70 on Friday. Would that set new record afternoon highs? Probably not, due to extra clouds. (Contrarily, the clear sky on Sunday allowed records to be obliterated). The records will be in the form of overnight lows. On Friday and Saturday mornings, the air temperature probably won’t dip below 55° at dawn (when overnight lows typically occur).  That would break the old overnight warm records which are currently in the low 50s from 1985.  Thanks to a very strong front on Saturday afternoon, gusty thunderstorms push through, clearing out by Saturday night and will help a chilly air return for Sunday. Monday is cold and windy again with wind chills in the 20s.
  • Big Warmup. 
    Last night’s air didn’t cool down thanks to the clouds and a light, humid, southwest wind.  The remainder of this morning will be cloudy with a few spotty sprinkles. Clouds begin to breakup by midday with full clearing this afternoon and highs jump another 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday. The dense fog for tomorrow morning arrives early, lingering until mid-morning.  Tomorrow’s sunshine will help highs soar into the upper 60s, near 70°, potentially setting records at some climate stations, but not all. Thursday is the best day weatherwise this week thanks to extra clouds that linger all day Friday; however, Friday is still much warmer than average. Saturday’s rain and storms hold off until later Saturday afternoon. Sunday offers a reality check with cold winds and a mix of sun and clouds with wind chills just below the freezing mark.
  • High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast is responsible for our southerly flow and unseasonably warm temperatures. Wednesday saw temperatures from 9 to 15 degrees above average and it looks this trend will continue through the first half of this weekend. A light southerly wind will trigger areas of potentially dense fog, especially, along coastal areas beginning late tonight and through the Thursday morning commute. Visibility may be reduced below a quarter mile, so it may be a good idea to add extra time for the morning commute. Highs are forecasted to reach the mid-60s, while overnight lows are forecasted for the 40s and 50s through Saturday.

    As we get into the first half of this weekend, a cold front will bring a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms to the borough. Cooler and windy weather returns for the second half of this weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s through the middle of next week. Still above average for late February.

  • Fog, then Sun.
    Mild weather returns today, after the morning fog lifts. Like yesterday, full clearing should occur around 1-2pm, helping temperatures rocket into the mid 60s. Tonight has clouds return for a mostly cloudy but mild day tomorrow. Afternoon highs should once again be in the 60s on Friday, with slightly less sunshine than today. Spotty showers could even develop tonight into tomorrow. Saturday brings back clouds and mild air until the evening when storms push through. Much cooler air with wind and sun returns for Sunday. Despite the brief cooldown, temperatures rebound into next week. Wet weather will be common most of next week after the dry Monday. Seasonably chilly weather returns in about 8 days.
  • Cold Punch. 
    After sunny and mild weather yesterday, clouds and fog return this morning, lasting until the midday.   Sunshine is back this afternoon, pushing highs again into the mid 60s (only 40s along the shore). Allergy season began earlier this week with tree pollen arriving a few weeks early, from maple and cypress. Clouds and sprinkles with cool weather dominate the forecast for Saturday as the gusty line of thunderstorms arrives after 6pm tomorrow. Chilly winds with sunshine start off Sunday with a wind chill in the 20s. The cold weather lasts briefly: highs moderate back to the mid 50s by Monday with continued sun and less wind. Tuesday brings back rain and mild air that lasts until Wednesday. Another round of cold air returns next Thursday night, setting the stage for possible flurries by next Friday.
  • What a great way to end the last full week of February! The trend of well above average temperatures will come to an end this weekend with temperatures falling back to seasonal averages for late February. Central and La Guardia both reached daytime highs of 70s degrees without reaching records of 75 and 73 both set in 1985. Oddly enough JFK reached a high of 62 degrees which broke the record high of 60 degrees set in 1984 and 1961. Rainfall for the month of February: 1.94” leaving a deficit of 0.68”. We’ll have an opportunity for a little wet weather late Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. There is also a chance for a few rumbles of thunder, heavy downpours and gusty winds. Once the front clears, a colder air mass takes over dropping our daytime highs to the mid and upper 40s for Sunday. Temperatures climb back to the 50s for highs with rainy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

    Have a safe and pleasant weekend!

  • Spring or Winter?
    It seems like there’s a taste of each season every other day.  That pattern continues into this weekend with milder weather forecast through tomorrow, warm and stormy on Wednesday, and then light snow on Friday. After this morning’s chilly start, the weather turns milder for the afternoon. Tomorrow’s high should reach the mid 50s despite some spotty showers. Wednesday will be warm and somewhat humid, like Saturday was, ending with a line of strong to severe storms with frequent thunder and lightning that evening. Colder weather returns for Thursday, just in time for some morning snow on Friday. A fast-moving clipper barely leaves a coating as more cold air rushes in for Saturday with gusty winds.
  • A cooler start to the new week with highs from the low to mid-50s on southwesterly winds that peaked from 15 to 24 mph and gust from 23 to 28 mph. Overall, we were 5 to 8 degrees above average as the month of February dwindles away. Get ready for another round of wet and windy weather as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The Storms Prediction Center has placed the borough under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The storms should clear by the Thursday morning commute as temperatures fall from the upper 60s and low 70s on Wednesday, 50s for Thursday and 40s by Friday.

    Our roller coaster ride of weather continues.

  • Warmest February.
    Despite average snowfall this winter, February 2017 will be the warmest on record by more than 6 degrees. This beats 2012 for the #1 spot which came in with an average temp of 40.9°. Oddly, the 2011-2012 winter had less than 8 inches of snow, while this winter is average at nearly 21”. March begins very warm tomorrow with the potential for coming close to the record high of 73°. (We’re already forecast to beat the overnight record for warmth by at least ten degrees tonight). The midday sun and warmth will add fuel to the storms that push through both tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening. While severe with gusty winds and heavy downpours just to the city’s West, most of the severity is lost as the storms approach the coast and enter the cool marine air. Following the thunder and lightning, temperatures drop below average, getting so cold that it snows midday Friday. Accumulations should be minor, less than an inch on cars and grass. Friday morning’s commute shouldn’t be impacted; however, light snow will fall for the duration of the Friday evening rush.
  • Other than the late morning/early afternoon sunshine, Tuesday was a day under a mostly cloudy sky with temperatures 13 to 15 degrees above average. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued for the coastal waters until 10am Wednesday. Also, a SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY has been issued until 6am also on Wednesday. The month of March will begin with the threat of showers and possible strong to severe thunderstorms as well as highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. The record high for March 1st was set in 1973 with 72 degrees at Central Park. After Wednesday, colder temperatures and gusty winds are in the forecast and believe it or not, we have a chance of snow showers on Friday as a clipper system crosses the region. Daytime highs will only reach the upper 30s on Saturday and the upper 40s on Sunday. Fortunately, temperatures will moderate to the mid-50s early next week.

  • Warm and Stormy.
    February ended 6.3°F above average, setting a new warm monthly record by more than half a degree from the 2nd warmest February in 2012. Some of that heat energy will help fuel the storms that arrive later this morning, since storms feed on that warmth, in addition to fast-moving winds high in the atmosphere. Severe squall lines don’t like cool, damp air, and the coastal neighborhoods are surrounded by just that: low clouds, some fog, and a generally cool feeling.  That marine air will suck the severity right out of the storms as they march eastward this morning. The first round of quick downpours, thunder and lightning moves through before noon.  Following the storms, sunshine will return briefly, allowing highs to rebound into the low 70s. Round two of showers and storms return for this evening, though likely less threatening. Cold weather is back after midnight, and wind chills will be in the 20s tomorrow morning. Winds gust to 45-50 mph tomorrow. Gustiest of the winds will be in the morning.
    The light snow on Friday will be a nuisance, beginning well after the morning commute ends. Plan on a light snowfall during the late morning/early afternoon that accumulates on cars by the start of the evening rush. Friday’s snow bears very close watching since the intensity is increasing with every update. If this trend continues, there could be an inch or two on the ground by nightfall Friday. Snow should end quickly after sunset Friday.
  • It appears that we dodged the severe weather bullet! Only 12/100 of an inch of rain for the first day of March with a high of 70 degrees at Central Park during Wednesday evening. The National Weather Service has issued a WIND ADVISORY from 1AM to 6PM Thursday. Westerly winds sustained from 15 to 25 mph with gust from 40 to 50 mph. The good news is that the strongest winds will most likely be felt during the first half of Thursday. We’ll also have to deal with wind chill values in the 20s and 30s.

    The work and school week ends with a slight chance of snow showers / flurries Friday and highs only reaching the mid-30s for the start of the weekend with a gusty northerly wind. Temperatures will begin to moderate back to the low 40s on Sunday and mid to upper 50s by Monday and Tuesday of next week.

  • Much Colder.
    The wind that howled overnight gusted to 52 mph around 4am. Gusts will continue to diminish though the afternoon as temperatures drop into tonight. Breezy weather this evening makes the wind chill feel like the teens and 20s tomorrow morning. Tomorrow’s snow doesn’t look like much of a thing anymore: likely just a few passing flurries begin around 1pm, lasting through tomorrow evening. Saturday remains breezy and very cold with highs staying below the freezing mark. Another round of mild weather in the 60s returns as early as Tuesday with late showers.
  • Thursday was a day under a fair sky, temperatures 16 to 18 degrees above average and winds gusting from 47 to 55 miles per hour at Central Park, La Guardia and JFK. Fortunately, the gusty winds will taper-off through the overnight as a strong area of low pressure moves northeast and over the Canadian Maritimes. As the low pulls away it will continue to drag down much colder air from the north. We have a slight chance of snow flurries and or snow showers during the late afternoon / early evening hours of Friday as a Clipper System crosses the region. High pressure slowly builds in from the west through the weekend. As a result, temperatures will be below average with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s through the weekend. Southerly winds will build in allowing temperatures to moderate to the 50s and 60s for highs early next week.

  • Winter’s back!

    Friday’s temperatures were as much as 5 degrees below average for the beginning of March. This a bit of a shock to the system as we were 16 to 18 degrees above average on Thursday. Fortunately, westerly winds were only 24, 34 and 35 miles per hour for Central Park, La Guardia and JFK. Be sure to dress to be warm through this weekend as northwesterly winds will keep our wind chill values in the single digits and teens until Monday.

    Have a safe and warm weekend,

  • Winter Returns.
    While Winter ends exactly two weeks from today, the countdown may appear to be longer than usual, especially later this week. The next two weeks have very volatile winter weather. Nearly 3 minutes of sunlight is added each day around the Equinox, adding to the energy that helps drive large weather patterns. With the rapidly changing jet stream that will be taking shape, cold bouts of air will last for days, to be followed by a briefly milder feel. That cold was evident this past weekend, and the mild is upon us, now through midweek.  Following the above-average highs Wednesday, temperatures take a dip into this upcoming weekend with enough moisture to put down accumulating snow in a triad of events: very light snow Friday, significant accumulations possible Saturday night into Sunday and a snow to rain mix next Tuesday. The only variable that will dramatically change the forecast this weekend is position of the storm: more snow if northern track, far less snow if nudged a bit south.
    Due to the nature of the rapidly evolving weather events this time of year (thanks to March’s fast gain of day to day daylight hours), the most accurate forecast won’t be available until just a day before the event begins. Just because a storm has been on the maps for the last week, doesn’t mean much in March, or October for that matter, when the rate of daylight loss is just as quickly. Last minute forecast changes, up to a day before the event, are not uncommon in March.
    The active pattern lasts through next week, when a quieter trend begins next weekend. Obviously, finer details for this weekend will be explained by Wednesday when the storm energy arrives over the US mainland, and is better sampled by upper-air instruments.
  • Briefly Milder.
    This morning’s rain lasts through the midday with a gradual warmup that bring highs into the mid 50s this afternoon. Tomorrow’s early rain is done by 7am, followed by sunshine and another mild day. Clear sky and mild weather lasts through Thursday. Friday morning begins much colder with light snow.  A small amount could accumulate through Friday afternoon. The southward trend continues for the weekend storm, keeping the worst to our South. While not completely out of the woods, the weekend system looks less impactful for the boroughs as of today. Still,  a very cold air mass digs down from Canada in its place. That cold brings down the air temperature into the teens, with single digit wind chills. Early next week is still cold enough to have ice and snow. The winter threats are far from over, even through next week.
  • Winter’s Revenge.
    Today and tomorrow will be a Spring-like pair of days, making you think that Winter has buried the hatchet.  Not so fast. Beginning Friday and lasting about a week, Winter gets the last laugh.  Starting early Friday morning, well before dawn, light snow begins, accumulating to about a half inch on car tops and elevated subway platforms. It’s just enough snow to leave footprints, but not enough to get too messy. Most of it melts on contact with roads. The wind and cold that follows for the weekend could break a 132 year old record for cold.  If the afternoon temperature on Saturday doesn’t climb above 28°, then the record low maximum from 1885 will be tied.  Wind on Friday night and Saturday will bring the wind chill down into the single digits—very unusual for early March.   Sunday is still frigid with highs that stay below the freezing mark. Morning lows on both weekend days will be in the teens. We miss out on any snow this weekend, as the storm is pushed South into the Carolinas.
    Monday starts cold and gradually transitions to clouds. The next snow event arrives for Tuesday, also putting down an accumulation during the day. It’s too early for specifics, but another round of ice and snow is in the forecast for next Thursday, too. That last round should finally end the cold pattern and bring back some seasonably cool weather, average for mid-March, by next weekend.
  • Light Snow.
    How can it be so sunny and warm this afternoon, to be followed by accumulating snow 12 hours later? March. That’s how. Tonight’s snow begins around midnight, but doesn’t begin to accumulate until after 6am. Heaviest of snow is during the peak of tomorrow’s morning rush, 6-9am. That’s when the accumulation of 1-2 inches occurs. Beyond that, flurries continue until noon. It’s a compactable, heavy and wet snow that’s great for snowballs and snowmen after school. Snow ends by 11:30-Noon tomorrow with breaks of sunshine and flurries as early as 2pm. I don’t think anyone in gets more than 3” in total. The wind begins howling tomorrow night. Wind chills drop to below zero for Saturday morning. Wind and cold remain all day Saturday. There’s less wind on Sunday, but we won’t reach above freezing until after the weekend.
    Monday is quiet, as the next storm sets up for Tuesday. Track is everything for Tuesday’s storm. Whether the storm’s track hugs the coast and drops a thump of accumulation, or skips out to sea and delivers zip, it will be a powerful noreaster. More clues on track will be available tomorrow, but we won’t be certain until Sunday.
  • Tuesday Threat.
    Today’s snow is still a nuisance, even more so that it’s delayed 3 hours, now running into the start of this evening’s commute. Yesterday was so dry and warm that the flakes were evaporating (submilating) before reaching the ground before dawn.  Now that the steady snow has begun, the first inch melts to chill the ground, then  the rest sticks, still accumulating to around 1½ to 2 inches by 2pm today. The heavy and wet consistency will allow the snow to stick to powerlines, trees and signs, making for uneasy travel during the morning rush. Snowfall rates could briefly be 1 inch per hour during the 7-10am timeframe. Colder winds and sunny breaks return by 3pm today. Biting cold and wind returns tonight. Wind chills feel like zero as gusts reach 40mph through tomorrow. Less wind is forecast for Sunday, but the air remains cold with sunshine.
    Tuesday’s storm is happening.  It will be a nor’easter. There is consensus on that. Most of the uncertainties regarding development have been cleared up. The final and most question that remains is where the exact track of the storm goes.  Either way, we’ll get gusty winds and precip with waves battering the coastline.  If the storm takes an ocean track, then we’re all snow with biblical amounts (more than a foot) and blizzard conditions all day Tuesday, ending Tuesday night. Moderate coastal flooding, too, since the full moon is Sunday.  If it takes more of an inland track, then snow amounts are manageable (around half a foot) before a changeover to rain occurs Tuesday afternoon.
    Recapping Tuesday: wind and cold with precip (snow and/or rain) is very likely. The accumulation amounts and changeover (if any) will be resolved when the track is determined by the end of this weekend.
    Either way, the storm clears by late Tuesday night with more wind and cold to follow.
  • Wall of Snow.


    There's still a little wiggle in the track: a difference of 100 miles of storm center would give us 8 versus 20 inches. There should be more of a consensus tomorrow.


    Good news: storm is only a one-day event, with near blizzard conditions likely lasting from 3am Tuesday through 10pm Tuesday night. Wednesday is windy and cold with partial sunshine and flurries.


    Bad News: the heavy snow will likely accumulate 8-20 inches, and winds will gusts upwards of 50mph during the height of the storm midday Tuesday.  Moderate coastal flooding and storm surge a big threat due to full moon Sunday. 


    Snowfall accumulations:

    Almost certainly get 8 inches

    Most likely scenario is 8-12 inches

    Worst case 12-20 inches

    Next update :  tomorrow at 3pm.


  • Downright Dangerous Blizzard
    Tuesday's storm is a very powerful one. 40mph sustained winds all day. Gusts to 65mph. It will have the same central pressure Tuesday morning as a category 2 hurricane, (in this case it never makes landfall.) Ocean water temp is 44-47 degrees, 7-10 degrees above average. That's what helping to strengthen the storm so rapidly, in addition to a very strong jet stream.
    Start time: 2-5am Tuesday begining very heavy. sticking immediately.
    Worst of storm: 6 hours of thumping snow 3-5 inches per hour 6am to noon. The  following six hours from noon to 6pm will have 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates.
    Winding down when after 6pm Tuesday. Conditions will improve very quickly after 8pm Tuesday night.
    How long does accumulation last? (does it melt this week with March sun?) Temperatures for the rest of this week are below the freezing mark. Maybe Friday gets as warm as 36 degrees. Sunday's storm is a similar track and intensity to what happened this past Friday, except everything sticks.
    Type: all snow, little to no mixing.
    Best case scenario 8-12" (there's a 5% chance the storm blows out to sea)
    Plan for 12-20"
    Worst case scenario: 2-3' (there's a 50% chance of this happening)
    Here's the trouble about Sunday's weather: there won't be a high level of confidence until Thursday morning. All of the "initial conditions" of weather data that's fed into the model won't be accurate until Wednesday morning, after all the snow is done. Then, the models take six hours to process, plus they need another 12 hour cycle to verify. The earliest we'll have good confidence about Sunday's snow is Thursday morning (3am).
  • Even Stronger and Closer
    Tomorrow’s storm will rapidly intensify tonight as it develops very close to the shoreline. What changed overnight? The storm track shifted a bit closer to shore, meaning stronger winds; however, little to no mixing will take place, so snowfall totals are still high. (and may go a bit higher) Wind gusts are already modeled at 55mph along the coastal neighborhoods in the city midday tomorrow, but gusts are typically measured a bit higher than modeled; therefore, gusts tomorrow midday could near 60mph with blowing snow tomorrow afternoon.
    3am: Snow begins. No wind.
    6am: 1-3” on ground. Gusts to 35mph. Snowfall rates 3-5 inches per hour begin by 8am. 2-3’ above high tide.
    9am: 4-6” on ground. Gusts to 40mph. Rapid accumulation. High tide in Canarsie: 9:47am. Moderate Coastal Flooding in Brooklyn.
    12 noon: 12-16” on ground. Gusts to 55mph. Snow fall rates of 3-5 inches per hour end by 2pm. High tide in Throgs Neck: 1:40pm. Moderate coastal flooding in the Bronx. 2-3’ above high tide.
    3pm: 16-20” on ground. Gusts to 45mph. Blowing snow, but little additional accumulation. Winds quickly diminish after 3pm.
    6pm: Last flakes fall. Totals 16-20+” (some drifts will exceed 2 feet). Gusts to 35mph.
    9pm: Winds will end.
    95% of the snow stops accumulating after 3pm. After that time, and additional 1-2 inches are possible through the evening as remnant bands pass through. Blizzard conditions last even after the snow stops accumulating, because wind will be blowing the snow, reducing visibility until 8pm tomorrow night. Winds shut off quickly after 8pm.
    Actual air temperatures drop quickly for Wednesday morning. Wind chills will be near zero on Wednesday morning.
    The rest of the week is sunny and very cold with gusty Northwest winds.  Weekend accumulating snow looks like a Saturday issue, should begin to clear by Sunday.
  • BLIZZARD WARNING 12AM Tuesday – 12AM Wednesday
    *Sustained winds of 35 mph or highs
    *Heavy blowing and or drifting snow
    *Limited visibility of a quarter mile or less
    *All three conditions for 3 hours or more
    *Potential Accumulation: 12 – 18 inches or higher

    STORM WARNING (for the coast) Tuesday 4AM – 6PM
    *Winds: Northeast to North 25 - 35kts, Gust 50kts.
    *Waves: 5 – 10 ' Ocean / 5 – 8 on Long Island Sound.
    *Periods of blowing snow, freezing rain & sleet

    If you don’t have to go out on Tuesday…DON’T!
  • Track was Everything
    The Blizzard Warning was cancelled because this morning’s rapid intensification of our nor’easter occurred 100 miles closer to shore. Due to that track change, warmer ocean air mixed into the storm about 1000-2000 feet up, and was funneled into the skies above the city. That warmer layer of air was supposed to stay over Long Island. That is what caused the snowflakes from this earlier this morning to melt into raindrops on their journey down from the cloud, then re-freeze into a sleet pellet before pinging off the ground. It wasn’t hail.  The same liquid equivalent and intensity fell as forecast, but instead a 3-4 inch per hour fluffy snow, an inch of dense ice pellets compacted the small snow accumulation, already on the ground. Visibility wasn’t poor since sleet is clear.  As the winds begin to shift, colder air will enter the city again, changing the sleet back to all snow later this morning.  This heavy 2-4 inch per hour snowfall midday will rapidly accumulate and coincide with the worst of the wind.  Since the storm center will be sitting in the entrance to New York Harbor by 3pm, winds will gust upwards of 55-60mph this afternoon, hence the wind advisory. The stronger winds and closer storm track worsened the coastal flooding situation.  Coastal flood warnings are posted at high tide for 3-3.5 feet above average high tide. 9:47a Canarsie. 1:40p Throggs Neck.The closer track also caused some thundersleet to hit NYC at 9:45am. That will likely continue.
    Since we lost that 4-5 hour window of expected snowfall to denser sleet, total snow accumulations have dropped to as low at 6 inches in Coastal Brooklyn, and to as low at a foot in Northern Bronx. Some parts of the Bronx never even changed to sleet.
    Windy weather tomorrow (up to 30mph) freezes everything in place, beginning with wind chills in the single digits tonight. The rest of the week is partly sunny.
    As far as the weekend: Saturday should begin with a light snow before dawn, and change to rain by midday. Flurries could return and linger into Sunday morning as windy weather, up to 25mph, from the NNW prevails throughout Sunday.
  • Late January Feel.
    Temperature at dawn was 19 degrees. Standard salt loses effectiveness in the low 20s, and stops working around 18 degrees. Unless calcium or potassium chlorides were applied (those work effectively even below 0°F), expect the solid ice (or compacted sleet pellets) to remain most of the day, especially if that icy patch is in the shade. Since most of what fell yesterday wasn’t snow, but rather several inches of dense ice pellets, that granular texture takes much more energy to melt. Sleet doesn’t reduce in volume easily when pressure is applied, either, like snow does. This morning’s brief early sun may not help to heat the roads enough, aiding in the melting; however, clouds quickly return by midday. Because of the clouds, highs remain in the mid 20s today. Bursts of flurries pass through this afternoon, briefly dropping visibility, and possibly even putting down a quick coating. Winds will last thought the afternoon, keeping the wind chill in the teens. The wind chill was 7 at daybreak.
    Actual air temperatures will be even colder tomorrow morning, with mostly sunny skies, and little wind. Tomorrow is when most of the melting begins thanks to highs in the mid 30s by midday. The refreeze cycle returns tomorrow night as lows drop into the 20s. Friday is sunny to start with afternoon clouds returning in advance of the late night snow.
    Saturday’s snow is a very similar event to what occurred last Friday, except everything sticks this time.  Remember the 2-3” of wet snow that accumulated on cars and grass? That is what sticks to the roads all day Saturday.  The start time of the snow is pre-dawn Saturday, lasting through the midday as a brief cold rain could mix in.  The snow/rain line is draped east to west just south of the city, for now. If all snow: 2-3 inches. If snow to rain: 1 inch. I don’t think it would be an all rain event, as the air is too cold thanks to the dense snow and ice depth—this is actually a computed variable in weather forecast modeling. The changeover from snow to rain/snow mix could occur Saturday afternoon. Either way, the changeover back to all snow happens Saturday evening, tapering to flurries early Sunday morning.  Breaks of sun and breezy conditions are on tap for Sunday afternoon, beyond Sunday morning’s clouds.
    Monday night and Tuesday’s event is mostly rain for the area, snow and ice should stay north.
  • An overcast sky, temperatures 15 to 19 degrees below average and peak wind gust from 32 to 39 mph. That was our Wednesday as the borough continues to dig out from Tuesday’s Nor’easter. Be mindful for areas of re-freeze during the overnight on only surfaces that have not been cleared of snow and or ice. Also, when was the last time you checked you filled your windshield washer fluid? You will most likely use a lot of it until the snow and is gone which will not be anytime soon.

    Dry weather is in the forecast through St. Patrick’s Day. Friday night into Saturday clouds will be on the increase and a mix of rain and snow is in the forecast.

  • Falling Ice.
    All the sunshine throughout the day will help melt more ice, more quickly.  Highs this afternoon will also be above freezing for the first time since Monday, allowing for ice to melt on buildings too.  Watch out for falling ice from buildings, as well as frozen debris, flying off cars. Despite afternoon temperatures reaching 35°, the average high for today is 50°. Sunshine gives way to clouds late tomorrow in advance of Saturday’s snow.  Light snow begins around 2-5am on Saturday, changing to a rain/snow mix in some southern neighborhoods by midday, lowering final accumulations there. Northern neighborhoods stay all snow. Around sunset (7:06pm) Saturday, any rain/snow mix changes back to all snow for the entire area.  The snow wraps up late Saturday night leaving a wet accumulation of 1-2” in the snowiest spots, while neighborhoods that mix with rain pick up at least a slushy coating. Any lingering flurries that last into Sunday morning should be gone by 8am.  Partial sunshine and a noticeable cold breeze returns for Sunday. Spring begins at 6:28am Monday, but it won’t feel like Spring for at least another week: temperatures stay 10-20 degrees below average for the next 10 days.
  • The weekend is just around the corner and our weather is improving! High pressure gave us a fair sky and highs only 8 to 11 degrees below average. Winds were still active with peak wind gust from 34 to 36 miles per hour at Central Park, La Guardia and Kennedy. High pressure over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will provide a mostly clear sky through St. Patrick’s Day. Increasing clouds will take over towards Saturday morning followed by light snow after 9am. Periods of light to moderate snow can be expected through the morning hours followed by a rain / snow mix during the afternoon and back to all snow Saturday night as temperatures fall from the upper 30s and low 40s. Snowfall estimates range from 1 to 3 inches by late Saturday night.

  • Luck of the Irish.
    Ten days ago, when Sports Director Patrick O’Keefe wanted the inside scoop on the St. Patrick’s Day forecast, I said a rain/snow mix.  It is possible see weather events almost two weeks away, but the timing is still the tricky part.  His Irish luck helped keep the rain and snow away until tomorrow, but that delay is helping to strengthen the system.  Full sunshine today and highs in the 40s gives way to clouds by late this afternoon. Tomorrow’s overcast start gives way to rain beginning in the afternoon and lasting through the evening. The changeover to snow happens around sunset tomorrow at 7:06pm. Snow begins to rapidly accumulate through Sunday morning, to around 2-3 inches by dawn at 7am Sunday. Due to today’s 12 hours of straight sunshine, most of this accumulation melts on treated main roads, compacting down to a slushy inch. The uncertainty regarding Sunday’s forecast is if the snow continues into the afternoon. If it does, some neighborhoods could near 5 inches on colder surfaces by Sunday evening.
    The air turns briefly mild with sunshine on Monday, the first day of Spring. Cooler weather arrives midweek, with rainy, milder weather ahead for next weekend.
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