News 12 Weather Extra

News 12 Bronx/Brooklyn Weather Extra Live

  • Warmer and Dry.
     
    Today’s weather will mimic yesterday’s dry and pleasant feel, adding about 4 degrees to the afternoon high.  Friday afternoon will feel about 10 degrees above normal. Tomorrow’s sky begins cloudy with cool air. Light sprinkles all morning will transition to a steady rain by Saturday afternoon. Rain lingers into tomorrow evening too.  About ¼” of rain falls by Sunday morning, not helping our drought in the slightest.  Some portions of NYC had their drought status upgraded to a “severe drought” class, while the rest of the city remains in a moderate drought. Reservoir levels are 7.5% below normal for this time of year. They’re  filled to only 68% capacity. Beyond tomorrow, there’s no rain in sight for the next 10 days. Dry and slightly warmer weather will continue into the end of the month.  This will help make foliage more vibrant during our peak color. Rain on Sunday morning should be over by 4am, with clouds lingering until 9 or 10am as winds pick up.  The remainder of the clouds clear out with gusty breezes after 11am. Sunday afternoon will be sunny and windy, gusts to 25mph. A dry chill will settle in making it feel like the 40s on Monday morning.
     
    Matthew never technically made landfall last night, as the storm turned north to parallel the Florida coast while just 40 miles offshore.  The strongest winds remain 30 miles off the coast gusting to 100mph at the highest before dawn this morning. Gusts are expected to reach 115 (Category 3 strength) mph today.
     
     -mike
  • High pressure will give us another day of nice weather for Friday. A cold front will bring clouds and a chance of showers to the borough for Saturday and then it’s back to pleasant fall weather with a clearing sky for Sunday. Other than some high thin clouds Matthew will not play into our forecast as this major hurricane remains well south of this region.

    Darryl
  • Picture Perfect.
     
    Our weather will be calm and clear with plenty of sun today and tomorrow. Warmer weather arrives tomorrow afternoon helping highs near 80° with low humidity. Saturday begins cloudy and stays grey all afternoon with very light showers beginning midday.  A weather front arrives late Saturday night, clearing out clouds for a picture-perfect Sunday.   The mornings have been so chilly, and the afternoons so warm thanks to the very dry air. Typical of Fall, the afternoon high temperature occurs earlier in the day than in the summer, since summertime humidity delays the peak warm hours until late in the afternoon. That humidity also lets the heat linger longer into summer evenings, while dry and clear fall nights allow that heat to escape the atmosphere into space. That is why temperature swings are so fast and dramatic this time of year from the chilly mornings to the warm afternoons. Next week’s weather begins chilly, but gradually warms to above average by Wednesday with mostly sunny skies.
     
    Matthew: by this time tomorrow, the storm will have made landfall near Fort Pierce, FL.  Wind gusts of 145 mph are part of the official NWS forecast for Vero Beach, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Cape Canaveral. The National Weather Service language is grim: significant human suffering, loss of life, uninhabitable areas for weeks or months.  A major hurricane (with winds greater than 110 mph) last made US landfall a record 4000 days ago exactly as of today, as Hurricane Wilma in 2005 (Thank Dr. McNoldy at U of Miami for counting). Zero Cat 4 or 5 storms have ever made landfall since 1851 from West Palm Beach north to the Florida/Georgia border. Matthew is also unique in that it’s making an oblique landfall that parallels the coast. More coastline will experience more Hurricane effects than usual, such as rainfall, which could exceed 1 foot.
     
    Finally, there’s a $6.1 billion weather satellite waiting to be launched in the Kennedy Space Center. While NOAA is confident that the building which houses the satellite can withstand a Category 4, gusts will likely reach Category 5 strength.  Even if the satellite survives unscathed, there will likely be another delay due to the impact of launch prep at KSC. This weather satellite was supposed to have launched in 2014, but has been plagued by delays ever since. This satellite’s importance cannot be understated: the next-generation GOES-R will narrow the gap in rapid-scanning satellite coverage to support high-resolution weather modeling and help create better forecasts with earlier weather warnings. Europe and Japan both launched their next-gen weather satellites a few years ago.
     
     -mike
  • We are in the clear!

    Thanks to a broad area of high pressure we’ll have pleasant fall for the remainder of the work and school week. By Friday, the high begins to move off the coast as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will bring clouds and a chance of showers to the borough Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure from the west will bring us another round of pleasant weather for next week.

    Hurricane Matthew remains an issue for the Bahamas, the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina through Sunday. This powerful hurricane is currently forecasted to turn east and away from the Carolina coast by Sunday. As a result, Matthew poses no threat to the northeast.

    Darryl
  • Saved by Nicole.
     
    We’re waking up to fantastic news this morning. Remember that scenario I mentioned on Monday? “A slower-moving Matthew may prevent the storm from being scooped up by a weather system over the Great Lakes, and continue on a path to the Northeast US, at a “scraping-the-paint” distance to our coastline.  If the forward slow speed continues, Matthew misses to opportunity to get steered into the Northeast US coast and could stay out to sea, taking a hard right turn off the Carolinas.”  Well, the storm moving so slowly, that Matthew misses its ride up the East Coast to the Northeast US.  The new NHC track is in line with all agreeing weather models worldwide, turning Matthew hard right out to sea on Sunday, steering it FAR away from the coast, and us.  Statistically this morning, there’s a 5% chance that Matthew hits us.
     
    Why was there a dramatic track shift overnight? You can thank Nicole.  Tropical Storm Nicole formed South of Bermuda yesterday, and will help tug Matthew away from the weather feature currently over Chicago. That was the weather feature over the Great Lakes that was supposed to scoop up Matthew and bring it to our area this weekend. We still get a little bit of rain and wind on Saturday, but no hurricane. Sunday’s weather should be refreshing with dry, mild breezes and sunshine. 
     
     -mike
  • Back to Showers.
     
    This morning started damp and drizzly in some spots. You can thank an easterly wind for that. Clouds will hang low for most of the day, with limited sunny breaks.  There won’t be as much sunshine today as yesterday. In fact, temperatures stay cool in the upper 60s only. Expect more light showers again this evening.  Tonight remains cloudy into another grey start tomorrow morning; however, sunshine quickly returns and will bring back full blue sky for most of the day. Highs tomorrow reach the mid 70s with upper 70s on tap for Thursday and Friday.  After today, the rest of the workweek is very warm and sunny.
     
    Matthew made landfall in Haiti this morning around 7am as a Category 4  with 145mph sustained winds, and 175mph gusts.  The slow 9mph northward movement is prolonging the catastrophic winds for longer. Matthew then continues north passing over Guantanamo Bay, Cuba tonight, and will be in the Bahamas tomorrow as a Category 3. The storm tracks have been shifting westward all night long, meaning that another landfall near Cape Canaveral and Florida’s Space Coast is very likely Thursday night.  By Friday, there’s a good chance that Matthew may even impact Charleston with yet another landfall as a strong Category 3.  Beyond Friday, the storm could turn east and stay offshore, missing us entirely this weekend, or it may hug the coast as a big, but fast moving heavy rain-maker. Matthew warrants careful watching for Sunday, here for our area. There won’t be a confident forecast for us until at least Thursday, which will be refined again on Friday.
     
     -mike
  • After nearly a week of clouds and scattered showers, we’ll begin to see a slow return to a clearer sky and warmer daytime high temperatures. We can thank Canadian high pressure moving east for the pleasant chances in the forecast. We also have a cold front moving east from the Western Rockies. Depending on the timing, this front may keep Hurricane Matthew from making a major impact along the east coast. More details to come.

    Darryl
  • Gradual Improvement.
     
    Skies turn brighter this afternoon as today will be our first almost entirely dry day since the middle of last week.  Weather improves gradually day-by-day. Expect another brief shower tonight, and extra clouds tomorrow. Complete clearing occurs by Wednesday, with warming into the low 70s by Thursday afternoon. As Matthew’s center moves over the mountains of Cuba and Haiti, the eye will weaken, but spread out, enlarging the wind field. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph or more for 54 hours this weekend, briefly reaching Cat 5—longest streak of winds that strong in the Atlantic since Wilma in 2005. When Matthew had winds of 160mph, it intensified an incredible 80mph in 24 hours. Only SIX other Atlantic storms have done this since 1851. The last one was Felix is 2007, and it formed near where Matthew strengthened. Matthew also beats Hurricane Ivan in 2004 for a Cat 5 storm ever to form closest to the equator.
     
    The slow northward movement of Matthew has been the primary forecast error of both the global and tropical weather models, meaning that the storm is moving much slower than forecast.  While terrible for the Caribbean Islands, and potentially Florida, a slower-moving Matthew may prevent the storm from being scooped up by a weather system over the Great Lakes, and continue on a path to the Northeast US, at a “scraping-the-paint” distance to our coastline.  If the forward slow speed continues, Matthew misses to opportunity to get steered into the Northeast US coast and could stay out to sea, taking a hard right turn off the Carolinas. Time will tell. Track variability for Day 5 (Friday) averages 240 miles for the National Hurricane Center forecast team. This storm’s track variability is over 1000 miles for Friday.
     
    Until further notice, weather balloon releases will take place 4 times per day, rather than the standard twice daily releases. This rare occasion happens only during scenarios where the two main global weather models disagree completely, as the American and European are currently as opposite ends of the spectrum. The more frequent upper-air observations will help the supercomputers decide where the storm may track.  If the storm stays out to sea, we’ll just have cool Northeast breezes and a few clouds this weekend.
     
     -mike
  • Ending the Week on a Rainy and Raw Note

    Clouds, wind and periods of rain remain in our forecast through the weekend. Early next week Canadian high pressure will begin to clear our sky returning us to pleasant fall weather. Matthew has developed into a major (Category 3) hurricane with sustained winds of 115 miles per hour and moving across the central Caribbean. Matthew is forecasted to make a turn to the north early Sunday bringing hurricane condition to Jamaica, western Haiti and Cuba, weakening a little before crossing the Bahamas Tuesday into Wednesday. Matthew has to be watched as it may have an impact on the east coast Wednesday through Friday of next week.

    Darryl
  • Windy and Rainy.
     
    Winds have gusted to 36 mph this morning and will likely gust higher by the afternoon. All of this wind is pushing the seawater against the shoreline prompting minor coastal flooding of 1.5-2 feet above normal high tide. The tidal cycle around Brooklyn occurs this morning around 8am and tonight around 8pm. Driving rain gets going later this morning with a temperature of 60°. Total rainfall will be underwhelming, likely less than 2 inches through Sunday, but the wind will make it feel worse. Winds relax a bit tonight (but still gust to 25 mph) with rain continuing.  Tomorrow morning begins damp with some mist and drizzle, but anticipate just clouds for the rest of Saturday afternoon. Rain likely returns again for Saturday night, lasting into early Sunday morning.  Some blue sky could appear as early as Sunday afternoon. Even on Monday, we’re not out of the woods, as sprinkles are likely with mostly cloudy skies and cool conditions.
     
    An eye is beginning to form in the middle of Hurricane Matthew, as it likely becomes a major hurricane later today with winds of at least 111 mph. The track has been rather consistent with each update, putting the storm east of Florida, over the Bahamas by Wednesday of next week.  That part is almost certain.  Beyond that, the storm’s potential path is very wide: it could make landfall in North Carolina giving us clouds and tropical rains, or the more likely scenario is curve out to sea missing the East Coast entirely.  There will be more clarity on the uncertainties early next week.
     
     -mike
  • Cloudy, rainy and raw through the weekend

    Our persistent pattern of cool and unsettled weather continues as high pressure over southeast Canada ushers in a gusty northeast wind. We also have a persistent area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley and drifting south that is keeping us under a cloudy sky with periods of rain that will be with us until early next week. Further, the 14th named tropical system in the Caribbean. Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane Thursday afternoon and moving west between Curacao and Puerto Rico. Matthew is forecasted to increase in intensity and turn north on Saturday, moving between Jamaica and Haiti by Monday, then crossing eastern Cuba Monday night into Tuesday before heading to the Bahamas Tuesday afternoon. Current forecast models have Matthew moving up the U.S. east coast by late next week. How close to the coast remains to be seen.

    Darryl
  • Cloudy rain and raw through the weekend.

    Our persistent pattern of cool and unsettled weather continues as high pressure over southeast Canada ushers in a gusty northeast wind. We also have a persistent area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley that is keeping us under a cloudy sky with periods of rain that will be with us until early next week. We also have our 14th named tropical system in the Caribbean. Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane Thursday afternoon and moving west between Curacao and Puerto Rico. Matthew is forecasted to increase in intensity and turn north on Saturday, moving between Jamaica and Haiti by Monday, then crossing eastern Cuba Monday night into Tuesday before heading to the Bahamas Tuesday afternoon.

    Darryl
  • Dumpster Fire.
     
    The weather is rotten over the next 5 days. A raw, wet wind began howling this morning up to 33 mph, with light sprinkles at a temperature of 62°. Today’s high temperature is a whopping 3° warmer than that.  Morning light rain and drizzle tapers to clouds this afternoon with windier conditions. Gusts could be as high as 40mph this evening when steady showers return.  Gale force gusts are likely overnight with steady rain.  Friday morning’s commute will be a battle against the elements: horizontal rain with gusts of 35 mph and a raw chilly feel in the low 60s.  Wind tapers by tomorrow afternoon a bit, but steady rain is likely through early Saturday morning.  By midday Saturday, both the rain and wind should let up; however, cloudy and cool weather remains. More showers likely for Sunday.  Monday is still cloudy and cool with gradual clearing by Tuesday. 
     
    There are two scenarios for Tropical Storm Matthew next week, as the two main global weather computers steer the storm to the East of Florida, avoiding the Gulf.  One scenario takes Matthew up the East Coast by Wednesday-Thursday of next week.  The other wants to stall the system just East of the Bahamas late next week.  Still, can’t discount the former just yet. The official NHC tracks don’t extend further than Monday.
     
     -mike
  • Cloudy and Cool with a Chance of Showers

    A strong area of high pressure over southeast Canada is forecasted to move south over the next 36 to 48 hours. This high will push our stalled front along the coast south. Low pressure over the Great Lakes region will drift south hanging out over the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic keeping us under clouds, active winds and scattered rainfall into the weekend.

    Darryl
  • Cloudy and Damp.
     
    After this morning’s sunny start, the weather over the next few days remains soggy. Some neighborhoods woke up to patchy fog this morning, especially along the coast. That fog is already rapidly lifting. Clouds return this afternoon with light showers and drizzle by the evening commute thanks to an increasing northeast wind. Gusty winds to 35mph tomorrow will drive the light showers and mist sideways, with cool temps in the 60s. Friday starts damp and breezy too, with increasing chances of heavier rain by Friday afternoon. The heaviest of the rain may stay to our West, but a small shift in track could put several inches on top of us by Saturday morning.  The sluggish weather system creating this damp pattern overstays its welcome into the weekend: Saturday will still be grey and cool with light showers; however, Sunday may have some breaks of sun.
     
    Early next week begins with extra cloudiness due to SAME stubborn system spinning overhead. The end of next week’s weather is a toss-up thanks to the undetermined track of future Matthew.  Hurricane hunters took-off from the US Virgin Islands this morning. Their mission is to find a closed center of surface circulation. Last night’s flight found tropical storm force winds.
     
     -mike
  • Unsettled Weather Continues

    Our weather remains unstable as a low pressure over the great lake region sits and spins for the remainder the work and school week. The associated cold front is forecasted to stalls off the northeast coast. As a result, we’ll continue to have a mostly cloudy sky, periods of drizzle, patchy areas of fog and scattered showers potentially through Saturday. Any rain received will help as moderate to severe drought conditions continue for much of the tristate area. Temperatures are forecasted to remain close to seasonal averages with highs in the 60s and 70s while lows fall to the 50s and 60s through the upcoming weekend.

    Darryl
  • Soggy Forecast.
     
    The next 24 hours will be our last dry and sunny weather until the weekend. Last night’s rain totaled a paltry .15 inches.  The rain ended around daybreak, leaving low clouds for the morning commute. Cool gusty winds will be followed by sunny breaks throughout this morning, with full clearing and a warm-up to 75° this afternoon. Tomorrow begins clear and cool with sunshine all morning. Clouds return Wednesday afternoon with light rain starting tomorrow evening.  That rain lingers on and off until Saturday morning.  The best chance for heavy downpours and a flooding threat is Friday. We’re still more than 7 inches in a rainfall deficit for the year.
     
    Saturday shows signs of clearing out, with more sunny breaks than Sunday.  Better signs of improvement will show up as the weekend approaches.  Matthew could go anywhere next week: just like when Hermine was a week away from the coast, the storm could go anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard or Gulf Coast.
     
     -mike
  • Another Chance for Much Needed Rain

    High pressure over New England will move east this evening allowing an increase in clouds followed by showers and possible thunderstorms late tonight. Rainfall amounts are currently forecasted for a tenth to a quarter of an inch by late Tuesday morning. Our weather will remain unsettled for the next few days as the front associated with tonight’s rain meanders along the coast with low presser developing along the mid-Atlantic and the northeast.

    Darryl
  • Cooler and Damp.
     
    After today, the weather becomes very unsettled. Brief rainfall late tonight clears just after dawn tomorrow, Then, a weak storm in the upper atmosphere removes itself from the jet steam (which would normally push it along), and the system parks itself over the Eastern US for the next 7 days.. This limits sunshine after tomorrow’s clear afternoon, with successive rounds of rain and clouds through the weekend. Thursday and Friday will be the wettest period with several inches of rainfall possible into Saturday.  Flood threats will determined day-by-day. While the end of the weekend may become drier, there still may be some extra clouds into Sunday. Highs all this week will be in the 70s with seasonably mild overnights.
     
    Next week’s weather is highly dependent on where future tropical cyclone Matthew decides to go later next week.  Even early determinations can’t be made until this weekend.
     
     -mike
  • Seasonal Temperatures Move in this Weekend

    A cold front will bring increasing clouds and a slight chance of scattered showers this evening. Canadian high pressure builds in behind and crosses the region and off the coast by Monday. This high is a strong area of high pressure that will usher in a seasonal air mass. That said, we can expect highs in the 60s and 70s for highs while lows will fall to the mid-50s. This trend of seasonal temperatures will continue through the next work and school week.

    Happy Autumn!

    Darryl
  • Hot Today, Cooler Weekend.
     
    There’s a beautifully chilly weekend ahead, that would align perfectly with typical fall weather. First, we’ll experience a Friday Furnace. A touch of humidity returns to the air, making today’s 88° high feel rather warm. The afternoon heat will be only 2 degrees away from a record at some climate stations. This evening will feel like a typical summertime evening as thin clouds return for sunset at 6:50pm. Some gusty breezes return overnight as clouds clear out tomorrow and a cooler Saturday with sunshine helps rush in the Fall feel. Sunday will be rather chilly as morning temps begin around 50, only climbing to 69 that afternoon. Some wind gusts could be around 15mph.
     
    Monday and Tuesday are both winners with highs in the low 70s and clear sky.  Late Tuesday may have extra clouds with rain possible for Wednesday. There’s little confidence in how much rain we could receive. The rest of next week remains near average: no 80s.
     
     -mike
  • Summer hanging on through the first few days of the Autumn.

    Autumn has arrived and our temperatures are still well above average. High pressure over Pennsylvania will move off the coast over the next 24 to 36 hours allowing a backdoor cold front to bring seasonal temperatures, but little if any rain to the city as we begin the first weekend of the Autumn season. Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front providing pleasant fall weather through the middle of the next work and school week.

    Darryl
  • Autumn’s Arrival.
     
    Fall weather will be fashionably late this year as Summer goes out in style. Highs today and tomorrow will be at least 12-14 degrees above average.  Records? Not a chance—those are in the 90s for today. Sunset and sunrise are almost 12 hours apart, but we’re losing around 2 ½ minutes of daylight per day this time of year. Clear weather sticks around through tomorrow with comfortable humidity. Clouds return tomorrow night and depart by Saturday morning as a cooler trend begins.  The real chill occurs for Sunday morning with gusty breezes and overnight lows around 50 degrees. Highs on Sunday remain in the 60s only.  Most of next week is dry, with our next chance of rain more than a week away.  Typically, a drier end-of-summer will create vibrant foliage for Fall as the trees are stressed; however, that’s only the case if the start of summer is very wet.  It has been too dry overall, so the drought’s foliage effects won’t be seen for another two weeks.
     
     -mike
  • Fall Temperatures on the Way

    High pressure continues to dominate our weather with a fair sky and above average temperatures for the remainder of the work and school week with highs in the mid-80s and lows in the mid-60s. A back door cold front moves in late Friday into Saturday. This front will bring fall temperature to the boroughs with highs in the 60s and 70s while lows fall to the 50s.

    Darryl
  • Last Day of Summer
     
    Autumn arrives at 10:21 tomorrow morning with weather typically found is June.  Highs today through Friday will be in the mid-80s with comfortable, but noticeable humidity. NOAA released its monthly climate report yesterday: August marked the 16th consecutive month in which the globe was record warm—the longest streak since records have been kept since 1880. Here’s the kicker: Year to date, globally, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the hottest on record, at 1.82°F (1.01°C) above the 20th century average.  Back when I was in school, we weren’t “supposed to reach” 1°C of warming until 2100.
     
    Early fog this morning dissipates after 9am, and will be followed by mostly sunny skies. After a clear tomorrow, the next round of clouds arrives on Friday morning, clears for the midday, then more clouds return Friday evening.  Gusty breezes will push summer weather out and blow Fall right into place on Saturday. Expect extra clouds and even a quick sprinkle Saturday morning. Sunday starts chilly, calm and dry with sunshine barely warming afternoon highs into the upper 60s.
     
    mike
  • Nice Weather into the Weekend

    A gradual clearing sky takes over as high pressure takes over through Friday. The trend of above average temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs in the mid-80s and lows in the mid-to-upper 60s. This is well above average for this time of year as the average high and low is 74 and 59. Believe it or not the fall season begins in just 2 days…This Thursday at 10: 21 am.

    Darryl
  • Last Weekend in Summer.
     
    This morning’s lows were quite chilly is some neighborhoods: some woke up to the mid 50s.  The refreshing feels lasts all day again today, repeating yesterday’s beautiful weather. Mostly sunny skies tomorrow will be accompanied by slightly warmer weather and a touch of humidity. Clouds return late tomorrow night.  Sunday’s rain will be very light and linger throughout the day—the more impressive rainfall coincides with Monday morning’s commute thanks to warmer weather and an extra humid feel. During the morning rush on Monday, downpours with embedded thunderstorms are possible. All totaled, the two-day wet weather event could drop up to 2 inches of rain, with most of that rain falling Sunday night and early Monday. Currently, our “moderate drought” classification is bordering the “severe drought” threshold. This weekend’s rain should keep us from crossing into drier territory. Skies clear by Monday evening and we’ll remain dry and warm through the middle of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday are a pair of sunny and warm days with cool mornings. Humidity creeps back in by Friday and Saturday of next week.
     
     -mike
  • Great weather through Saturday!

    High pressure over southeast Canada will move east through Saturday providing us with a mostly clear sky, easterly winds and highs in the mid-70s to the low 80s. Our next round of wet weather comes from the upper mid-west and Great Lakes region as low pressure pulls a cold front eastward. By Sunday we’ll have a cloudy sky, showers and thunderstorms that may produce periods of heavy rain. This will be beneficial rain as rainfall deficits are at 6.9 inches for the year.

    Darryl
  • Feels like Fall.
     
    With just 7 days to go until Autumn arrives, the cool weather arrived last night. Yesterday’s record heat beat the old number by 3 degrees, hitting 92 at LGA. Highs today will feel 20 degrees cooler thanks to dry air settling in. This pleasant pattern lasts until Saturday evening, when clouds arrive.  Sunday will be wet with steady rain and some embedded downpours. The wet weather lingers until Monday morning. The remainder of next week should be dry and pleasant, with highs climbing back into the low 80s (above average) and some noticeable humidity by week’s end.
     
     -mike
  • High pressure continues to move away from the coast as it draws heat and humidity from the south. A cold front is approaching from the west and forecasted to move across our area and off the coast through the overnight into Thursday. Behind the front, is and other area of high pressure that will provide us with pleasant weather from Thursday through the first half of the weekend. Clouds return by Saturday afternoon as another cold front brings a chance of much needed showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

    Darryl
  • Summery Feel.
     
    Today’s weather will feel somewhat more humid as highs race into the upper 80s, feeling like the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Some climate stations may come close to record highs this afternoon. Shower chances are low after 5pm as the front pushes through, mostly dry.  A few clouds tonight will be followed by a breezy chill, allowing most neighborhoods to cool down into the low 60s by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow and Friday are seasonably mild with cool mornings and mostly sunny skies.  Saturday’s weather continues the pleasant feel.  Rain arrives Sunday, lasting into Monday. Those showers won’t help our drought—new drought data arrives late tomorrow morning. Our current moderate drought may turn severe in the coming weeks if there’s no significant rain.
     
    Tropical Storm Julia was the first tropical storm on record to form over land. Typically, the eye needs warm ocean water to grow and intensify.  This year’s odd hurricane season began with Alex in January, the first hurricane to form in the Atlantic in January since 1938. Julia is not a threat to our forecast.
     
     -mike
  • Our pleasant weather continues as high pressure hugs the coast. Southwesterly winds will bring an increase in heat and humidity through Wednesday. A cold front over the Great Lakes region will slowly move east bringing clouds and the chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday evening. Once the front clears, a cooler and drier air mass will move in and take us into the last weekend of summer 2016.

    Darryl
  • See-Saw Weather.
     
    The air remains pleasantly mild with low humidity today, but humidity rises tomorrow along with temperatures, making Wednesday’s high feel like 90°. A significant drop in temperatures will create a chilly feeling for Friday morning thanks to all the dry air; however, the dry and cool feel arrives as early as Thursday morning. Sunshine remains through Saturday.  Sunday will begin cloudy and quickly transitions to wet weather by the afternoon. That rain is followed by another system adding to the soggy feel by Wednesday. The rainfall could measure an inch or two.  All of this rain is much needed: we’re 7 inches drier than normal for the year to date.
     
     -mike
  • It was a beautiful start to the new work and school week as high pressure to our west provides a mostly sunny sky, pleasantly warm temperatures, dew points in the 40s and 50s, and variable winds averaging 5 to 10 mph. Heat and humidity return by mid-week as the high moves off-shore and generating south to southwest winds. A cold front will slowly approach from the Midwest increasing the chances of showers by late Wednesday. Once the front clears, another ridge of high pressure will return us to pleasant weather to as we begin the weekend.

    Darryl
  • It was another hot and humid day with highs of 91 at Central Park, 93 at LaGuardia (a record) and 91 at JFK. Overall it we were 14 – 16 degrees above average for the day. Keep an eye to the sky and an umbrella handy as scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are in the forecast for this evening as a weak cold front crosses the region. Our weather remains hot and humid through the Saturday with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Another cold front crosses the region late Saturday into Sunday bringing a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. By Sunday our winds will come from the west-northwest. This is a cooler and drier air mass that will bring pleasant weather Sunday through Tuesday of next week.

    Darryl
  • Record Heat.
     
    Even though the heat advisory was cancelled yesterday for today, today’s weather will still feel much hotter than yesterday. At dawn the low temperature at LGA was 85: that is only 6 degrees away from tying the record high. In fact, all of the climate reporting stations have broken the overnight record maximum low temperature, meaning that it never stayed this warm at night, on this date. Morning clouds and stifling humidity last through midday, when sunshine returns to make this afternoon feel like it’s rivaling the hottest summer day. The heat index may briefly rise to 100° in the hottest neighborhoods (in the shade). The dew point remains tropical throughout the afternoon.  A quick storm passes through late this afternoon, cooling us down into the low 80s for the rest of the evening. Tomorrow will be similar: hazy, hot humid with morning clouds and afternoon sun, chance of a late-day shower, but only about 5 degrees cooler. The real drop in humidity comes tomorrow night. Sunday will begin rather pleasant with a balmy breeze and drier feel. Highs will feel comfortable in the low 80s. After some very early showers end before dawn on Sunday, sunshine is around all day long.
     
    Monday and Tuesday are winners: dry and sunny, around 80. After Wednesday’s showers exit, Thursday and Friday begin cooler in the upper 50s in spots, climbing to the low 70s each afternoon with mostly sunny skies.
     
     -mike
  • Heat Index values reached the low and mid-90s for today with another round of heat and humidity in the forecast to close out the work and school week. A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and stall over the tristate area Friday, This will keep us under a slightly unstable weather pattern giving us a slight chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Friday night and again Saturday night into Sunday. Another front will usher in a cooler drier air mass that will bring a very pleasant start to next week.

    Darryl
  • High Humidity.
     
    A heat advisory was issued for the boroughs through tomorrow evening for feels like temperatures of 95-100°. The muggy weather this morning is tolerable, but becomes very humid by this evening. A late-day sea breeze cools off coastal neighborhoods into the upper 70s this afternoon; however, those neighborhoods will spike back to feeling like the 90s tonight when that sea breeze shuts off after 8pm. Mostly sunny skies will make afternoon highs today and tomorrow reach the low 90s. Anticipate a humid start to the weekend, with a much drier and comfortable finish.  An afternoon shower or storm is possible on Saturday, but the less humid feel and crystal clear sky that arrives on Sunday will feel like Autumn has finally arrived for Sunday aftenroon.  Beyond a mild and sunny pair of days on Monday and Tuesday, and a brief shower mid-week, cooler weather returns for Thursday, about a week from now.
     
     -mike
  • The remnants of Hermine will slowly move northeast over the next 24-hours. As it does, the surf will slow relax. In the meantime, rip current risk remains high as the surf is forecasted for 4 to 6 feet. A cold front will cross the region by Thursday night and a second front crosses by Sunday. Unfortunately, little if any rain is associated with these fronts. If you thought the summer season was coming to an end now that Labor Day is behind us, think again. Temperatures will be well above average through early next week.

    Darryl
  • Heat and Humidity.
     
    As Hermine is STILL influencing our weather today, anticipate a few showers with mostly cloudy skies. Humidity builds into the afternoon with an even warmer feel than yesterday. Tonight stays muggy with clouds.  More sunshine returns tomorrow as highs approach 90°. A very warm finish to the week brings the heat index near 95° on Friday with the highest humidity of the week. Warm sunshine morning and midday on Friday will be shrouded by afternoon clouds and t-storms. Saturday is warm with partly sunny skies. Sunday has early morning showers, with afternoon sunshine and a drier, cooler feel.  The typical warm and dry “back-to-school” feel returns on Monday, lasting through the middle of next week.
     
     -mike
  • As Post-Tropical cyclone Hermine meanders about 120 miles south of the Twin-Forks of Long Island, we’ll continue to have a mostly cloudy sky, northerly winds, gusting from 20 to 30 mph and spotty showers. Hermine will begin to move northeastward as a cold front moves in from the west. The front will bring little chances of rain. However, ahead of the front is a very warm and humid air mass that will make you question if the start of the fall season is really 15-days away. Daytime highs for the next 5-days will range from the mid-80s to the low 90 with Friday being the hottest day with a forecast high of 90 degrees. Will this be a record? No! The record high for September 9th is 94 degrees set in 1915.

    Darryl
  • Breezy with Clouds.
     
    Winds increase today with extra clouds as Hermine’s remnants spin offshore. Anticipate 5-10 minutes showers at random times this afternoon and tonight.  The storm will continue its westward track, coming closest to our shores by tonight.  Gusty winds to 35mph continue into tomorrow with cloudy skies and a few quick passing showers. Humidity will be noticeably higher tomorrow. The weather begins to heat up tomorrow and Thursday as highs reach 90 with mostly sunny skies and high humidity Thursday.  Friday is even warmer. The weekend will likely start cloudy with passing showers on Sunday.
     
     -mike
  • Hermine Who?
     
    The effects of the tropical system will be slightly less impactful than initially advertised. To be clear: none of the storm warnings have been cancelled. If you don’t live along the immediate coast anticipate a pair of REALLY windy days tomorrow and Tuesday. Nothing more. Gusts to 50mph, with passing clouds.  I don’t think we get much rain.  The biggest problem from the storm will still be coastal flooding (or “sunny day flooding”) when the seawater piles up along the shoreline when there aren’t many clouds in the sky.  Up to 1 foot surge above ground level on certain streets.  That equates to “moderate flooding” or 3-4 feet above normal high tide.  Tomorrow afternoon’s high tide cycle around 2pm will be particularly dangerous in the Bronx.  Limited effects in Brooklyn due to the wind direction.
     
    Why not that bad? The Hermine is still strengthening, but took a last minute jog away from our shores. Furthermore, the turn left tomorrow night won’t be as sudden or prolonged.  This keeps the worst of Hermine far away from us.  Conditions improve Sunday.
     
     -mike
  • A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued until further notice!

    High pressure over the Great Lakes will build northeast through Saturday as Hermine moves northeast and off the NC / VA coast Saturday afternoon and may regain straight late Sunday / early Monday. There is a chance that Hermine may stall off the NJ coast. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Tri-state area as moderate to major coastal flooding, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents can be expected along with gusty winds. There is still significant uncertainty in the forecast of Hermine.

    Darryl
  • Too Much Uncertainty.
     
    Beyond Sunday, it’s anyone’s guess how impactful Hermine will be to our weather.  At worst, Hermine regenerates into a Hurricane off the NJ coast due to very warm gulf stream Saturday night and sits, spinning  near Atlantic City until Thursday, eroding beaches and creating major coastal flooding at the coast. Very windy and rainy in the city through next week. At best, Hermine transitions into a nor’easter-type storm, giving us some rain and a little wind on Sunday and Monday, but mostly moderate coastal flooding through next week.  Either way, it doesn’t look like Hermine drifts out to sea until Friday, September 9th. The normal escape route is blocked, and the storm can’t exit into the Atlantic.
     
    The middle of the road is the current forecast: clouds tomorrow, some rain and wind Sunday and Monday, gusts to 45mph, with moderate coastal flooding in the Bronx (3-4 foot surge), less flooding at Brooklyn shores due to storm wind direction. Ocean wave energy will create damaging waves at the ocean beaches in Brooklyn, however.
     
    I’m participating in a National Weather Service conference call at 10:30am.  Will provide further details this afternoon to the forecast, based on their thoughts.
     
     -mike
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