Flurries, then Sun.

 

Today’s weather begins cloudy and chilly with a brief burst of morning flurries, ending before 10am. Sunshine quickly returns by noon, melting any accumulation. Highs reach the mid 40s this afternoon as gusty winds pull in chilly air for tonight, keeping skies clear through tomorrow. Christmas Eve begins wet and cool with light rain lasting through the early afternoon. Rain ends by the start of Hanukkah. Christmas Day is sunny and clear. Early next week turns mild in the 50s with an above average feel for the next 7 days.

 

 -mike

Chilly, then Wet.

 

Today’s sunshine will be accompanied by a gusty wind at times, keeping the wind chill in the mid-30s all day. Tomorrow’s weather begins wet and windy as light snow begins falling N&W west of the boroughs at dawn; however, a steady, wind-driven rain starts the morning hours in the city lasting all day. Gusts could reach 40mph tomorrow as the temperature remains in the 40s. Roughly a half-inch of rain will fall, ending by Thursday evening. Cold weather immediately follows tomorrow night, freezing any standing water in place for Friday morning. Sunshine barely warms us up on Friday as highs remain seasonably chilly in the 30s. Weekend weather is dry and cold. Wind chills are in the teens and 20s at midnight with possible flurries into Sunday morning.

 

Early next week turns mild again with rain.  Another round of super cold air follows for the end of next week.

 

 -mike

A Cold Wind.

 

After today’s rain ends by early afternoon, a brief brightening of the sky occurs before sunset, allowing for a few rays of sun before 4:37pm. Tonight will remain windy and keep temperatures feeling like the 20s. Wind and cold lasts all day tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies and even a few flurries. Wind chills will be in the teens for Saturday and Saturday night. Despite Sunday staying above average, Monday and Tuesday’s weather soars back into the 50s.  Unlike this past Tuesday, that warm weather will be accompanied by rain. Another cold blast comes in for the end of next week. There are signals from some of the global models for a wintry type event for next Saturday. I wouldn’t read too much into it yet. The energy for that storm is currently over the South Pacific—plenty of time to watch.

 

 -mike

69 Hours.

 

At 3pm this afternoon, our long stretch of freezing weather comes to an end. Since 6pm on Friday evening, the temperature at any point of any day has been below freezing. 69 hours later, we’ll welcome the big thaw. After this morning’s sunny start, clouds race in again to shade the skies grey. Sprinkles arrive as early as 3pm, but the steady rains hold off until midnight. Tomorrow’s commute will be most challenging for pedestrians as the slushy and slop creates deep, icy pools at curbs thanks to the half inch of rainfall. Breaks of sun appears in between tomorrow’s partly sunny skies in addition to the very gusty, but milder winds. Another round of rain arrives for tomorrow night into Thursday, possibly accompanied by grumbles of thunder.  Because it becomes so warm, so quickly, potholes will only multiply and/or grow in size over the next few days. This will be most evident on Thursday, when highs could reach the low 60s, smashing record highs set back in 1975. The Central Park record should stand, because it’s older, 64° from 1890. (The weather station for the city was actually downtown on Wall Street, since Central Park was only 32 years old as the time.)

 

Another cold air mass arrives for Friday and sends our weather back into the freezer. Saturday turns cloudy and cold with snow arriving late Saturday afternoon. This time, it’s a nighttime snow that should wrap up by midday Sunday. Look for accumulations in the coming days.

 

 -mike

Spring-like Day.

 

This afternoon will feel like a sunny, April day. Thanks to a southwest wind, temperatures started in the upper 40s, and remain in the low 50s this afternoon. Breezes will be light today, with an abundance of sunshine. Clouds return later tonight, and provide gusty winds with moderate rains after midnight. A quarter inch of rain fell last night. Tonight’s rain matches that amount. Once the sun rises tomorrow, temperatures will be off to the races!  Highs will easily set new records tomorrow, possibly even at Central Park, too. See chart below. Windy weather tomorrow won’t allow the warm afternoon highs to be all that enjoyable, thanks to gusts in the 40mph range. Winds relax for Friday, with a cooler mix of sun and clouds.

 

Saturday will begin cloudy as light snow brushes the borough later Saturday afternoon.  I’d be surprised we get more than a dusting. Most of the accumulations stay South. This is not an ocean-storm like last weekend, so that eliminates a possibility of rapid intensification. There are other ways that Saturday night’s snow could gain strength or shift, but those scenarios won’t be clear until tomorrow.

 

 -mike

 

April Showers.

 

Just under a half inch of rain fell last night. The southwest wind didn’t do anything to cool the air; in fact, the opposite occurred. Temperatures before dawn are 6° away from setting the new record high for today—a high seasonably average for mid-April. Lingering sprinkles and clouds this morning should delay that record high until breaks of sun appear this afternoon. All rain is likely done by 9:30am. The warmest part of the day occurs within the 4pm hour. Typically, the warmest part of the day during Winter occurs around 1pm. Chilly weather returns tonight as clouds clear for a mostly sunny start to the day Friday. As colder air pushes in tonight, temperatures drop into the 40s for tomorrow creating some afternoon clouds for Friday. 20s return as soon as tomorrow night, with clouds back for Saturday morning.

 

For Saturday’s snow: it begins in the late morning, lasting through Saturday night. Some of the same signals are now appearing that caused last weekend’s snow to rapidly intensify. Luckily, I’m not overlooking those signals this time around and will pay more attention to the worst case scenarios. Most of the moisture stays south again, but snowfall will become enhanced by a powerful jet stream sitting very low in the sky, similar to last weekend. That jet stream helps to enhance the accumulations. The high resolution models haven’t finished the plotting the end of the storm, since it’s only Thursday morning. Regardless, I can safely say that an inch is expected on the ground by daybreak Sunday; however, 3” in quite possible. I’ll try to narrow that range in tomorrow’s update.

 

Whatever falls doesn’t last long: highs are back in the 50s with rain as soon as Wednesday.

 

 -mike

Back to Winter.

 

Temperature records were broken on both ends of the spectrum yesterday. Obviously, new record highs were set: crushing the old one at LGA by 8 degrees, and even beating out a 127 year old record in Manhattan. Was the 1890 record on Wall Street reliable? Yes. Thermometers back then were more accurate since they contained mercury and only needed to be calibrated once. (Today’s electronic thermometers need far more maintenance to remain accurate.) In addition, a lesser known record, known as the “highest minimum temperature”, was also set.  This means that the air temperature never stayed that warm overnight, on that date in history. Below, in yellow, are the lows from yesterday’s 24 hour period. They are all higher than the previous records, by 2 degrees, respectively.

 

Sunshine and cold return today with afternoon temps settling into the 40s with windy conditions. Tonight’s wind will drag down the wind chill to feel like the teens around midnight. Tomorrow begins cloudy as highs remain around freezing. Light snow begins in the late afternoon with accumulations wrapping up by daybreak Sunday. Expect more in Brooklyn and south, again like last weekend, but there shouldn’t be more than one inch of accumulation by Sunday’s sunrise. Plan on a dusting from this weak snow system.

 

Monday’s weather is sunny and chilly with milder air returning through next week. Next week’s forecast rainfall Is still badly needed: our nearly 10 month-long drought remains moderate to severe. In fact, our drought is now worse than California’s drought due to all that West Coast rain. Latest data has our reservoirs at 18.2% below average.

 

 

-mike

Seasonably Chilly.

 

Another cold afternoon with sunshine follows the seasonably chilly start to the day.  Highs this afternoon reach the low 40s. A cold rain starts tomorrow morning, with afternoon showers lingering. Sunshine and drier weather returns through the course of the day, Wednesday. Milder weather tries to nose in for the end of this week, before another round of rain takes over for Friday afternoon, lasting through Saturday morning. Highs keep rising well above average this weekend into early next week, likely coming close to 60 during the typical coldest part of winter. We’ll once again flirt with record highs in about a week. The long-range trend keeps highs warmer than average through the end of the month. Only the last few days of January begin a sudden dip below average and back to frigid cold into February.

 

- mike

Rain, Not Snow.

 

We started this morning with temperatures a few degrees warmer than the typical afternoon high.  The weather at daybreak this morning was about 15 degrees above average. Today’s rain doesn’t cool the air further, rather, the rainfall keeps a chilly raw feel with steady temperatures in the low 40s throughout this afternoon. Sprinkles begin as soon at 11am, transitioning to steady showers after 2pm.  The heaviest of today’s wet weather (moderate intensity at best) arrives in a window between 4-8pm. Roughly a half inch of rain falls until midnight.

 

Rain exits before daybreak tomorrow, keeping clouds hanging low all day Wednesday. Thursday sees sunshine return and highs bounce in the low 50s. The milder trend continues into next week as even overnight lows stay far away from the freezing mark. While there’s a chance of some light rain late Friday night (the same system that will drop rain in DC during the inauguration), Monday and Tuesday’s rain storm is far more significant. Since warmer air holds more moisture, flooding rains could be an issue to start next week.  The mild weather ends in about 9 days, followed by a much colder trend into February.

 

 -mike

Wet and Windy.

 

As rain begins early this afternoon, it sets the tone for a soggy next few days. Chilly weather through next week will stay cold enough to make each day feel raw, but just warm enough to prevent snow from falling in the area. Clouds linger all day tomorrow, with more rain for Sunday morning.  The wind associated with Monday’s nor’easter starts up on Sunday night and reaches its peak on Monday, with gusts around 50mph from the East. Tuesday morning will be the last of the rain, when more than two inches will have fallen since today. The middle of next week has sunshine returning before temperatures drop next Friday to the average wintertime feel.

 

 -mike

Shower, Sun, Mild, Cold…

 

We’ll get to experience both Spring and Winter seasons in the next 24 hours. Many locations began around 50° this morning with mostly cloudy skies.  A round of Spring-like showers lasting no more than 90 minutes wets the ground until 11am today. Sunshine and mid-50s immediately follows for the afternoon. The sun lasts until 5:05pm. Tonight turns much colder. Tomorrow will begin to feel like winter again with breezy and chilly conditions thanks to wind chills in the 20s. Several rounds of cold air reinforce the cold throughout the weekend.  A mix of sunshine, clouds and gusty winds with a winter chill lasts through Tuesday.  Then, a potent clipper brings a light round of snow during the day on Wednesday. Clippers typically don’t drop more than an inch or two of accumulating snow. Following the snow, the cold continues into the end of next week.

 

 -mike

Sunny and Colder.

 

Chilly weather returns with sunshine today. Winds will stay gusty right through the weekend. Monday’s clouds are due to snow storm that stays too far south and swings out to sea before it can give us any flakes.  Wednesday’s opportunity for a light snow is still on the table. The rest of next week is seasonably chilly and clear. Keep an eye on Superbowl weekend for another snow threat.

 

The seven month drought is over for Brooklyn. It lasted from June to yesterday.  The Bronx’s drought has improved one category (from Severe to Moderate).

 

 -mike

Cold Today, Snow Tomorrow.

 

The brunt of this morning’s snow is staying just offshore. There’s still an opportunity to have some flurries throughout the morning, thanks to very strong winds in the lower atmosphere directly overhead, known as a low level jet. Sunshine pokes though the clouds beginning this afternoon. Wind chills today won’t climb above 29°. Tomorrow’s opportunity for a light accumulation of snow is better thanks to the clipper moving through the area, rather than missing us offshore, like today. Beginning around 10am tomorrow, light snow begins and lasts through tomorrow’s evening commute, until about 7pm. Expect a sugarcoating of powder, but up to an inch is likely. Wednesday will bring slightly milder weather before big cold returns Thursday into next week. The late weekend storm is showing signs of falling apart, but we’re not out the woods just yet. The overall weather pattern remains active and cold through the middle of February.

 

 -mike