Rain and Wind.

 

Today’s weather will be wet until 3pm, but still breezy, cold and damp through this evening. Gusts up to 30mph howl through the midday with the worst of the rain occurring this morning. Tomorrow quickly improves as highs return to above average, around 60 with sunshine. Warming peaks with mostly sunny skies and dry weather on Friday. Sunday is wet with a chilly rain as snowflakes could mix in at times. Monday and Tuesday are much colder and very windy. The drought has reached a new severity: city reservoirs are 17.7% below average this morning. 5 weeks ago, on October 7th, they were 7.5% below average. 0.08” of rain fell over the watershed in October.  All of today’s rain misses the reservoirs’ watershed too.

 

 -mike

Spring-like Warmth.

 

Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, likely reach the mid-60s.  Tomorrow could near 70° under mostly sunny skies. Calm breezes with warm afternoons come to an end late Saturday. High clouds shroud the blue sky on Saturday afternoon before rain and wind start up on Sunday. A big chill returns as highs will struggle to exit the 40s on the second half of the weekend. Temperatures remain very chilly and feel even colder with gusty winds lasting all day Sunday, Monday and even some of Tuesday. Wind chills will remain in the 20s during the coldest part of each day. The winds settle and sunshine returns for late Tuesday and all day Wednesday; however, winds pick up again with rain just in time for Thanksgiving day.  This is the first year in a decade that it will have rained heavily on Thanksgiving. The last 10 years have only had two Thanksgivings with rain: 2014 had light morning snow showers, and 2010 had a light drizzle. Almost 2 inches of rain fell on Thanksgiving 2006. In addition, confidence is growing that the winds will not cooperate with the balloons for the parade this year.

 

 -mike

Spring to Winter.

 

We missed tying yesterday’s record by one degree at some climate stations around the area. Today’s weather will be warmer, but the records are out of reach. Tonight’s weather turns cool once more, before our last day of warm air for the foreseeable future arrives tomorrow. Colder air and rain moves in for tomorrow night, allowing for snow to mix in by early Sunday morning.  Sunday is just wet and windy with a raw chill and highs only in the mid 40s. Upon sunset on Sunday, some of the rain changes back to snow, lasting until midnight with no accumulation. A hard freeze likely occurs into Monday morning with very cold air and very gusty winds. Wind chills will be in the 20s on both Monday and Tuesday morning as winds top 45 mph. The windiest days are Sunday and Monday.

 

Quiet weather returns for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday with a seasonable chill. Wet weather is almost certain for Thanksgiving. The question is: how heavy will it fall and when?  It’s too early for specifics.

 

 -mike

High Winds.

 

Full gales continue today and tomorrow. The highest wind gusts were last night at 50mph. This afternoon’s gusts will near that intensity. Temperatures are suffering as a result. Highs today struggle to leave the 30s, and wind chills will be in the 20s all day. Today’s clouds part for afternoon sunny breaks. More sunshine returns by Wednesday. Thanksgiving day will be breezy with light rain, possibly mixing with snow before dawn on Thursday morning. Dry weather for Friday This chilly weather lasts for the next 10 days, ending November on a seasonable note. Reservoirs continue to fall as an “Extreme Drought” was declared for portions of our reservoir watershed. Reservoirs has dropped to 57.3% of capacity, about 20% lower than normal for this time of year. Rainfall is more than 8 inches below average.

 

 -mike

Another Windy Day.

 

Sunshine attempts to break through the clouds this afternoon, but the winds will still be kicking.  Gusts to 35mph today. Tonight will be mostly clear as winds diminish. Tomorrow’s sunshine helps the air warm to 46°. Thursday will be mostly cloudy with on and off light rain in the city; however, some ice and snow could mix in at times to the North.  Almost all of Friday’s rain holds off until Friday night. Gusty cold winds return for Saturday, with a gradual clearing for Sunday. Early next week should become wet again, as cold air returns for the end of next week.  December 1st shows a large scale winter weather feature that bears close watching.

 

 -mike

Flooding Rains.

 

Mild weather this morning turns into heavy downpours by the afternoon. Winds from the South peak around 2pm, gusting to 40mph. Anticipate huge puddles and local flooding for this evening’s commute. Round 1 of rain ends by 9pm tonight with nearly 2 inches of rainfall. Cloudy, mild and foggy weather begins the day tomorrow. Round 2 of rain starts falling by tomorrow afternoon, lasting until just before daybreak on Thursday.  A round of thunder isn’t impossible with either event before each exits.  An additional 1 inch falls. A gradual cool-down with clear weather lasts through the weekend. Wet weather begins next week, with widespread cold air to follow (a giant coast-to-coast deep freeze for end of next week).

 

 -mike

Thunderstorms.

 

Today’s weather isn’t so bad beyond the morning fog. Even winds will be light through the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s. The real action begins after 4pm, when thunderstorms enter the area bringing downpours and an additional inch of rain. That’s on top of the 2.25” of rain that fell yesterday, a record for the day at 2 of the 3 climate reporting stations in the city. We need 12-15 inches of rainfall in one month in order to end the drought, or 6-9” to ameliorate it. All of yesterday’s and today’s rain could ameliorate the drought by about 40%, as we’ll need 3 more storms like this to completely end the drought. There’s more rain on the way for next week, too.

 

Plenty of sunshine returns by tomorrow morning for a clear and calm day. A few extra clouds are in the forecast for Saturday with a more seasonable chill in the 40s. After the wet start to next week, a cold and active wintry pattern emerges for the rest of December. The chances for snow are looking good in the next 10-14 days.

 

 -mike

December Chill.

 

Cooler weather is driven in today by noticeably drier northwest winds. Sunshine remains all afternoon. Tomorrow begins cooler with wind chills around 30°. The weekend will feel like typical December: clouds on Saturday with wind, colder on Sunday with sunny and calmer conditions. For the second day in a row, there are hints at a sugarcoating of flurries for Monday morning only. That’s worst case scenario, but at least it keeps the impatient snow lovers happy. Sunshine returns by late Monday morning. Tuesday through Thursday will be milder, but still around average in the upper 40s. Next Thursday night into Friday is our next big rain/wind event where snow could be a component. Strong cold follows for next weekend.

 

New drought numbers will be posted later today, and included in tomorrow’s update.

 

 -mike

Taste of Winter

 

This weekend’s weather will begin to feel more like Winter with chilly, dry air through Monday, capped with some light snow for early Monday morning. Similar to yesterday afternoon, clouds return by 2pom today, and winds turn gusty tonight dropping the wind chill into the low 30s for Friday night plans. Tomorrow has a few extra clouds, but gusts of wind to 20 mph helps the 45° high feel extra chilly. Sunday is calmer with more sun. Late afternoon clouds Sunday signal the change in the weather for late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

 

The hardest snow to forecast, is when the event is less than 1 inch. There needs to be just enough moisture to get the flakes falling, but not too much moisture so that snow doesn’t accumulate. There’s a good chance of having a sugarcoating on cars early Monday morning, likely wrapping up by dawn.  Sunshine returns for the rest of the day. Next week’s weather will be very active and seasonably chilly with 2 significant rain events, the latter possibly ending as snow on Thursday/Friday. The coldest air since March 3rd, 2016 arrives in 7 days. Next Saturday’s wake up weather will be in the mid-20s, with wind chills in the teens. The cold lasts well beyond that.

 

mike

High Volatility.

 

This morning’s light snow and rain wrapped up just as the sun rose.  I was impressed to see how the timing and intensity played out almost exactly as modeled 5 days ago.  That’s usually a good sign for how the models will react to the future scenarios for this upcoming winter—like passing the first “test”. The trouble is: the maps have been all over the place for later this week into next, with storms disappearing and re-appearing every other day. I don’t think we’ll be as lucky regarding forecast accuracy and long lead time as the weather pattern becomes colder and more active by Friday.

 

Here’s how this week looks as of today: This afternoon starts sunny as highs climb to average, 48°. Tomorrow begins with filtered sun as clouds return throughout the day, and rain begins again at night. Wednesday starts wet with dry weather returning by late morning.  Thursday and Friday will be much colder with highs barely leaving the 30s, and gusty winds howling into the weekend. Another round of wintry weather could near by Sunday. Stay aware of last minute changes to the forecast through the weekend.  The city’s first freeze occurs by Saturday, ending a 250-day stretch of a frost-free season. This year’s duration is longer than average, and even increases the slope of the trend line since 1970.

 -mike

Cloudy and Chilly.

 

This morning’s sun is likely the only sun we’ll see until Friday. Clouds return this afternoon, adding to the chilly feeling. Rain arrives tonight, turning to light accumulating snow after 6pm N&W. Tomorrow will start damp, but most of the ½ inch of rain will be over by daybreak. Wednesday will be heavy on the clouds, and temperatures stay in the low 40s all afternoon. The changes to the forecast (and that high volatility I mentioned yesterday) begin to occur for Thursday, with light snow possible during the morning and midday potentially accumulating to about an inch on cars and train platforms by lunchtime Thursday.  Serious cold blows in with gusty winds on Friday. Saturday morning’s wake up weather will feel like the teens thanks to wind. Next week’s weather will be even colder.

 

 -mike

Colder with Wind.

 

Last night’s rain dropped another half inch of water. Our rainfall deficit for the year is only 6 inches below average for the year (as opposed to more than 9” just 2 weeks ago). Today’s weather is calm and cloudy with a damp feel, but tomorrow’s late morning sunshine is followed by a gusty wind and much colder air mass. Highs will be well below average into Friday and Saturday, with highs not leaving the 30s.  In fact, wake up weather will be below freezing for the first time this season in the city on Friday.  Wind chills will feel like the teens on both Friday and Saturday morning with gusts to 30mph. Sunday ends cloudy as late night snow changes to rain for Monday. This first round of cold is just the beginning: in 7 days, wind chills are forecast to be below 0°F for most of the northeast as record cold breaks out.

 

 -mike

Colder.

 

Light rain ends by 9am, with clouds remaining for the midday. A few breaks of sun return before the sun sets at 4:28pm. Beginning tomorrow, the sunset will start occurring later in the day. Daylight hours are still shorter through the solstice next Wednesday (sunrise is later), but the sunlight shifts a few minutes later, hence the later sunset times. Tomorrow starts chilly with sunshine, as highs fail to reach the average of 44. A light dusting of snow occurs tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, with no rain following to wash it away. Partly sunny skies are forecast for Wednesday. Thursday and Friday’s actual air temperatures stay below freezing: the low 20s. Winds will be very gusty, and wind chills will be below zero (as low at -15°F: borderline Wind Chill Advisory criteria) . Despite all of the cold air, Saturday’s snow and ice could be mostly rain. There are 5 days to watch that next system.

 

 -mike

Dusting Tonight.

 

Sunshine returns this morning with a cool breeze. Today starts milder than usual, but temperatures plateau at 43° this afternoon thanks to a thick deck of clouds arriving by noon. The afternoon cloudy skies help to keep things chilly so that tonight’s snow sticks on contact. Flurries begin as early as 10pm and transitions to a light steady snow, ending by 3am. There is little accumulation, likely just a dusting on the cars and sidewalks. Tomorrow begins sunny and dry, melting any accumulated flakes by 10am. After a sunny day tomorrow, the Arctic assault begins tomorrow night. Lows plummet to new records by daybreak on Thursday with wind chills near zero.  New record minimum highs may also be set Thursday and Friday meaning the afternoon high temp was never that cold on that day. Central Park records should stand (the 6° record was set in 1874, four years after President Grant founded the Weather Service and recordkeeping began), but the airports’ lows will easily be broken: 15° from 1962 is the temperature to beat. Wind chills on Friday will be well below zero, as low at -15°F in gusts.

 

Following the Siberian Express to end the workweek, light snow begins on Saturday morning. This snow should accumulate to a few inches before changing to freezing rain midday, then plain rain by Saturday night. Rain lingers into Sunday. Next week’s weather keeps the active pattern in play, with a system to watch every 3-4 days.

 

 -mike

Spiraling Downward.

 

Mostly sunny skies today help us warm to 41° for the last time with sunshine for a while.  (It does become milder this weekend, but the weather will be damp.) The wind and cold will make tomorrow morning feel like 15°, but tomorrow evening will feel like 5°. Wind chills dip below zero for Friday morning as the Arctic air races in beginning tonight. Winds will gust to 35-40mph by tomorrow afternoon, pulling down even colder air for Friday. Actual air temperatures by Friday morning will be in the teens—that’s the coldest it will get during this cold snap. As clouds return for Friday afternoon, light snow could begin as early as Friday night. The Saturday storm trended colder and earlier, but still keeps snowfall accumulations in the 1-4 inch range before the changeover to rain mid-morning Saturday. In addition, the end of the messy weekend is just coming into view on the high-resolution charts and Sunday may have freezing rain issues. More exact timing will follow in tomorrow’s update  Either way, the mess clears out for Monday, with a  clear and seasonably cold start to next week.

 

The chances of a White Christmas are increasing, especially since the active weather pattern of a system every 3-4 days peaks on Christmas weekend.

 

 -mike

Zero to 60.

 

The fast and furious winds pull down Arctic air through tonight. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph by tomorrow morning, hence the high wind warning effective this evening. Gusts have already topped 44 mph at dawn today, and the worst is still hours away, set to blow in tonight.  Wind chills will feel like 0° at daybreak Friday. Tomorrow afternoon winds relax and sunshine prevails until thin clouds return through the late afternoon Friday. Snow arrives late tomorrow night, accumulating to 2-3 inches by dawn on Saturday. The changeover to rain occurs around 8am Saturday compacting accumulations to a slushy, waterlogged slop by noon. Light rain and fog develop for Saturday night. Then, we’ll jump to 60 degrees on Sunday (yes, 0-60° in 2 days) as milder air moves in for the second half of the weekend. Fog could become quite dense on Sunday.

 

Following Sunday’s slush-a-thon, another round of light rain could end as freezing rain and snow on Sunday afternoon. Any uncleaned walkway quickly refreezes for Monday morning’s cold. Next week starts relatively quiet with sunny, calm air as temperatures stay seasonably chilly.

 

 -mike

Warmer in Alaska.

 

This morning’s temperature in Anchorage, Alaska is 21°F.  It’s 19° and falling here in the boroughs. The wind chill remains in the single digits until noon. 5 days before Winter arrives, today will be mostly sunny with clouds arriving later tonight. Wind chills warm to 14° at best. In fact, look for halos across the afternoon sky as the thin ice crystals could refract sunlight into sun dogs, too.  This typically happens in the Arctic. Snow begins accumulating after midnight with steady snow lasting through dawn, 7:14am Saturday. Winter weather advisory posted through 10am tomorrow. 1-2 inches accumulates in Brooklyn before changing to rain by 9am. 2-3 inches of snow accumulates in the Bronx before changing to rain by 11am. There won’t be enough rain that follows to completely wash the accumulation away, but compaction to about a half inch slush and slop is a more likely scenario. (That’s actually modelled now).

 

Temperatures stay above freezing through the weekend, reaching on Sunday with dense fog and drizzle. Cold air rushes back in for Monday, potentially putting down another coating of snow later Sunday evening as Sunday’s rain ends as snow. Next week is seasonably chilly and quiet. Next weather event is about a week away, trending milder with rain by next Friday.

 

-mike