News 12 Weather Extra

News 12 Connecticut Weather Extra

    Spring Fling this week
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Monday, March 7, 2016

    Following a cool weekend, temperatures are on the move this week. Chilly air is lurking to our north all week long, but it looks like the warmth will win out over the next few days. Sea breezes will make it coolest right along the shore.

    HyperLocal Forecast For Tuesday 



    HyperLocal Forecast for Wednesday 


    HyperLocal Forecast for Thursday 






    The Bermuda High
    Meteorologist Mike Rizzo @meteor_mike

    Springlike weather is on the way for this week! Trust me, warm-weather lovers are really going to enjoy this. It'll be perfect outdoor weather by Tuesday and Wednesday. But where is it coming from? A lot of it has to do with the air pattern around a Bermuda High Pressure.

    Aside from Bermuda being my favorite place in the world, the atmospheric qualities are truly fascinating! The air pattern over that region of the Atlantic contains the qualities of warm, humid, and beautiful weather - often attributed to the warm waters of the Gulf Stream that runs northwards along the eastern seaboard.
    This is a photo I actually took in Bermuda at Tobacco Bay Beach. Doesn't it look just beautiful? High pressure = sunny & great weather!

    This high pressure is semi-permanent, which means that it never really "goes away". When thinking about weather, we always see weather constantly changing. If you've ever been to Bermuda for a few days you quickly learn that the weather is pretty much the same everyday and even the temperatures at night don't change too much from during the day. You may get the occasional pop-up thunderstorm, but other than that - it's pretty flat.
    The "H" represents the semi-permanent Bermuda High Pressure and the arrows circling it represent the related wind pattern. 

    However, the high pressure does "move" and it could move west - which puts it closer to the east coast of the United States. When that happens, the air pattern around the "Bermuda High Pressure" pushes southerly winds into the northeast.


    For this time of year, that means it's not too warm and not too cold. On the other hand, the summertime effects are more intense - hot and sticky!

    Hurricanes actually move around - not through - the Bermuda High Pressure, which is partly why many hurricanes typically hug the coast of the US as they turn north from the Caribbean and equatorial regions of the Atlantic. Sometimes if the Bermuda High Pressure moves far enough west, the hurricane may even cross Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico! (Although, each scenario is unique and there are often many other factors attributing to storm track - this is just an example!)

    Taking it hyperlocal, this weather pattern will leave beautiful weather for Wednesday across southwestern Connecticut. Highs will surpass records! The previous record was set in 2002 for March 9 at 60 degrees. We should make it into the mid-60s and even push closer towards 70!

    Winter's on its way out! After all, we had a mild season and the current climate forecast calls for warmer weeks ahead. I think it's well deserved after last year's winter. Let's look forward to spring warmth and even a better summer!

    At least for now...it looks like El Nino is weakening, and if it weakens enough; it could trigger a La Nina pattern that would enhance Hurricane season. Yikes! But don't worry - it's too soon to tell right now. 

    Warming On Up!


    The temperatures will be on the rise for the next couple of days! 
    Sunday will feature a mix of sun and clouds to start but increasing sunshine will be the story through the late morning. The sun will shine fully by the afternoon and into the evening with highs near 42 degrees.


    For Monday, warmer air is pulled in from the southwest which will provide a warmer day! Highs for Monday will reach 51 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

    There will be continued clouds on Tuesday with highs near 60! Keep that warm air coming!
    As we hit Wednesday, we should break high temperature records. The previous record is 60 degrees, and that was set back in 2002. Our current forecast calls for 65 degrees. Believe it or not, but it can be even warmer!

    You'll have to keep posted to see if anything else changes - but for right now, let's enjoy it with plenty of sunshine!

    Melting Snow in Redding

    DROUGHT IS OVER
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Thursday, March 3, 2016

    The lingering drought is over in southwestern Connecticut. Moderate drought conditions persisted through much of the winter. Recent rainfall helped bring the drought to an end.





    MILD WINTER SEASON
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Wednesday, March 2, 2016

    The final numbers are in. It was the second warmest December through February ("Meteorological Winter") on record in southwestern Connecticut. The records go back to 1948. Notice that the five warmest have occurred in the last 25 meteorological winters.





    Record Warm Leap Day
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Monday, February 29, 2016

    It was a mild Monday across southwestern Connecticut. The high temperature reached 58° at Bridgeport. This is a new record high for February 29. Of course, there's only a February 29 every few years, so the record database isn't too substantial for the date!
    Wrapping Up A Mild Meteorological Winter
    Monday, February 29, 2016

    Winter will officially end in three weeks, but "meteorological winter" ends today. Meteorological winter runs from December 1 through the end of February.

    This will likely end up being the second warmest December through February on record for Bridgeport. The records go back to 1948.

    We will have the final results tomorrow. 




    Monday Morning Showers


    This mild push of weather has been coming through the area with southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front that is currently moving into the Midwest. This cold front will push eastwards, creating a weak line of showers as it moves pushes some of the mild air out of the way. 

    Monday’s weather features this cold front expected to briefly pass through during the late morning after 8AM and wrapping up by noon.
    This line of showers are expected to be weak and only bring passing light rain. 


    The skies open in the afternoon to decreasing clouds and more sunshine. Highs north of the Merritt Parkway should reach into the upper 50s whereas areas along the shoreline will see highs in the mid-50s. Currently our forecast calls for a high of 56 but this is likely to vary across the area.

    Depending on the amount of sunshine, the highs may reach closer to 60 degrees in some of our communities.  


    March-like Weather Ahead!

    Saturday’s chilly breeze and sunshine will end this evening as a few clouds approach the area for the night. These few clouds linger into the early morning where we have a very chilly start to the day on Sunday. 



    The day quickly warms up to reach highs in the mid-50s and the breeze will calm to about 10mph in the late afternoon. The sun will shine through Sunday before more clouds arrive late in the evening going into Monday morning. 

    These clouds will come with a light round of showers that will pass by on Monday with a cold front. The heaviest part of the front should remain to the north of the area and temperatures on Monday will have a small effect as warm southwesterly winds continue to bring warmer air to southwestern Connecticut. 



    Monday’s highs should push towards 60 degrees north of the Merritt Parkway and highs south of the Merritt Parkway will be a touch cooler, near 56 degrees. There will be a good amount of clouds on Monday which can alter temperature forecasts through the weekend. Tuesday looks to offer a mix of sun and clouds. 

    Wednesday comes with wet weather arriving from the southwest as another rain storm passes through. This clears out for Thursday and Friday with cooling temperatures and breezy conditions. We end the week in the upper 30s with a chance for flurries early on Friday.



    COOLER AGAIN
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas

    Friday will be bright, but cooler. Highs will reach into the 30s, and a gusty breeze will make it feel cooler. The weekend starts off chilly. It'll be more "spring-like" on Sunday.




    Time Lapse For Thursday, February 25, 2016

    Redding Time Lapse 2/23/16

    The Tale of Two Storms


    An active region of wet weather will be sparking up two storms that will track up to the northeast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

    An area of active weather down near Texas will be the source for two developing storms this week.  


    The first is expected to graze to the south of the area but we can be clipped with the northern fringes (like many of the storms of this season). The good news this time shows that this storm will be smaller and faster moving and would only bring a brief round of wintry mix to the area late on Tuesday.

    For Wednesday, the weather turns unsettled with far-stretching clouds and spotty showers. Wednesday afternoon features a storm quite large that will move northeast. It will rocket through southwestern Connecticut for the second half of Wednesday and into Thursday bringing heavy rain, gusty winds...and mild temperatures coming close to the 50s. It doesn't look like this storm will bring any wintry weather!

    It ends early on Thursday with a blast of gusty winds behind a passing cold front that knock down temperatures for next weekend.

    So think of it this way - we started this week off in the 50s, and end it in the 30s.
    QUIET, BUT NOT SILENT
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas

    After an active start to the week on Monday and Tuesday, the weather has settled down across Southwestern Connecticut. Temperatures will be cooler than average on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.

    An approaching warm front may bring some light snow or freezing drizzle late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. 

     Snow/Ice Chance

    There's another snow threat for Sunday night through midday Monday as a weak storm passes to our south. This could end up being a wintry mix or a total miss, so it's something we will watch.

    The next threat for a substantial storm is some time around the middle of next week. Odds are good that a major storm will impact the east coast. The potential impacts for southwestern Connecticut are to be determined. Some solutions favor a warmer, wetter storm; however, it appears that odds are better for a more wintry solution.




    COLD WEEKEND
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Friday, February 12, 2016

    An arctic cold front will usher in the coldest air of the winter on Saturday. As the front crosses on Saturday morning, snow showers or a squall are possible. Any squall can quickly drop visibility and cover the ground in snow.


    The core of the cold will be with us on Saturday night. Wind Chill temperatures will drop to near -25° during the night.






    WEEKEND COLD SHOT
    Wednesday, February 10, 2016

    The coldest air of the season will move into our area this weekend. The leading edge of the cold could trigger a snow shower or squall Friday evening. Daytime highs on Saturday will be in the teens. A biting wind will make it feel much colder. The core of the cold arrives Saturday night. Lows will range from 0 to 10 below zero, and wind chills will be near 25 below zero.

    Wind Chill Estimate - 1 AM Sunday 





    MORE SNOW FLAKES
    Tuesday, February 9, 2016

    Some more snow flakes are expect Tuesday night into Wednesday. These are not part of a well organized storm, so the snow threat is more variable in nature.

    Tuesday evening Radar 

    Snow showers are possible from time-to-time Tuesday night through Wednesday. Accumulations will be light in most areas. If anyone is caught under an heavier snow bands, accumulations will be greater.







    MAJOR COLD BLAST LATE WEEK
    Monday, February 8, 2016

    The coldest air of the season is set to move into southwestern Connecticut late this week. The week looks very cold with daytime highs in the teens to near 20 and overnight lows in the single digits.






    Snowglobe


    A Snowglobe. That's exactly what it will look like through the next three days as two fairly massive storm systems are going to be merging together. Fortunately some refined details are trickling in.

    A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for southwestern Connecticut for Monday 3AM to 6PM

    Storm hugs the coast, grazing the edge across southwestern Connecticut. 

    MONDAY: 

    Expect snow to fall shortly after or around 5AM starting from the south and east. We will be on the edge where a matter of 15-20 miles will make the difference in the final forecast snowfall totals. As of now, we are a hair away from seeing the larger amounts. This is the most likely forecast for Monday unless anything changes overnight as the storm moves closer. For Monday's snowfall, expect light to moderate snowfall through the day accumulating up to 2-4". The "heaviest" would likely be near noon with a potential for snowbanding, which can increase rate of snowfall. Snowbanding is not well forecast prior to the storm's arrival and can be detected while the storm is impacting our area. My snowfall forecast 2-4" covers potential for that developing snowband. This snow will not be the heavy-wet type, but the fluffy type.

    It is also possible to see the snow become intermittent through the afternoon on Monday before the coastal storm leaves just after sunset. 

    Monday's Forecast Map:

    Amounts closer to 4" are likely near shoreline/south of the Merritt and east.  


    TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:

    The snowglobe-like weather continues through Tuesday with an overcast and a few intermittent snow showers. A clipper arrives in this time-frame which is likely to deliver some more snow to southwestern Connecticut. This could bring an additional few inches. Again, the potential for snowbanding is likely here too. This storm would be more traditional with snow arriving from the west. As a preliminary forecast: I believe this could bring an additional 2 - 4".

    An Alberta Clipper dives a cold front south and swings snow showers into the area for Tuesday into Wednesday.  



    Potentially Stormy Start Of The Week! 

    Meteorologist Mike Rizzo @meteor_mike

    A storm to the south looks to be riding off the coast and into the Atlantic for Monday. There is uncertainty with the track for Monday's storm and we will continue to watch these details for storm track and intensity changes through Sunday.

    Some forecast guidance has been suggesting the storm stays just east enough to keep us from trouble. Other forecast guidance says otherwise, a westward trend that gives us a deeper impact. 


    A westward track seems possible at this time because of recent trends of storms from this season combined with the current weather pattern and projections. This would not send the largest part of the storm our way, but it would send plowable amounts of snow with moderate accumulations.

    The second storm looks more certain for Tuesday and Wednesday, which is a clipper system that delivers some rounds of passing lighter snow showers through Tuesday and even into Wednesday.

    A clipper is developing over Alberta, Canada. This should head towards the northeast USA for Tuesday and Wednesday providing some snow showers 

    Beyond that, a dip of the jet stream pulls in some cold air for the end of next week.

    It's just a non-stop battle of the seasons here lately!

    ACTIVE NEXT WEEK
    Friday, February 5, 2016

    Following the morning snow, it was a gorgeous afternoon across southwestern Connecticut. The weekend will be pleasant with sunshine and temperatures between 40 and 45 during the day. Icy spots are expected at night with temperatures dropping below freezing.

    The weather pattern will be very active next week. 

    Odds are pretty good that we will have at least some light snow in the Monday through Wednesday time frame. It remains uncertain if these storms will come together in a manner to bring us heavier snow. The bottom line is stay on top of the forecast over the weekend!

    It'll turn quite chilly by late next week.



    Snow to Sun! Redding Time Lapse 2/5/16

    SLICK FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE
    Thursday, February 4, 2016

    Following a spring-like day, it is back to winter on Friday morning.

    Snow is likely through the morning commute. Plan on slippery roads through the morning. Snow will end during the late morning or early afternoon, and breaks of sunshine are possible by later in the day.

    What To Expect 




    Rain around midnight. 


    Changing to snow around 3 AM 



    Snow for the morning commute 


    Snow winds down around noon 










    CLOSE CALL
    Wednesday, February 3, 2016

    A storm will pass to our east Thursday night. The latest indications are that this storm may come far enough west to bring some rain and snow to our area late Thursday night into Friday morning. The best chance is in eastern areas. 

    Accumulations wouldn't be impressive, but the timing is troublesome as this is during the morning commute Friday. If you are traveling to the east on Friday morning, there is potential for a heavier accumulation of snow.


    There is a threat for a large coastal storm early next week. We'll have more on the in the coming days.

    WET, WARM AND WINDY
    Tuesday, February 2, 2016

    The mild weather means our next storm will be rain on Wednesday. Some showers are possible during the morning. 


    The rain will be heavy at times during the afternoon. Some large puddles are possible during the evening commute.













    So close!
    Meteorologist Mike Rizzo @meteor_mike



    We came close to breaking records today. The high was 60 degrees officially in Bridgeport. Some vast sunshine broke through earlier today. Combine that with southwesterly winds - you get a warm day.

    I hope you enjoyed - and continue to enjoy this weather despite the passing drizzle from this afternoon. The rainmaker is on the way for Wednesday - so umbrellas up!
    A Taste Of Spring

    It reached the 50s today in many places across southwestern Connecticut! 


    It feels like March! But it isn't even February yet! it'll be February tomorrow and we're kicking off the month with temperatures nice and mild.
    High temperatures for the first chunk of the week will be mighty fine reaching a high of 55 by Wednesday. Unfortunately a few rounds of wet weather interrupt the warmest of days starting with Monday. A weakening cold front moves towards the area bringing mostly cloudy skies and a quick passing shower midday around or just after 11AM. Southwesterly winds pump temperatures to 52 degrees before a wind shift occurs in the evening. 

    The winds overnight into Tuesday blow from the west-northwest only cooling Tuesday's high temperature to about 46 degrees. We catch a sunny break on Tuesday before more clouds arrive late on Tuesday evening with a storm passing through on Wednesday. This storm is bringing warmer weather with highs near 55 degrees, which can potentially break the record high temperature. The rain should leave just under an inch of liquid before leaving us with just clouds for Thursday and Friday. The colder but more seasonal air returns for the weekend next week with a possible snow shower for next Sunday.

    Strap In...
    & Keep all your limbs inside the vehicle at all times...

    Meteorologist Mike Rizzo @meteor_mike

    The roller coaster is back! A few ups and downs are anticipated this week. I forecast more ups through the first half before ending the week with a ride to the bottom.

    The first half of the week features some warmer weather thanks to southwesterly winds and a rise of the jet stream. A couple of cold fronts interrupt this pattern as per usual where some cloudy skies and rain showers are anticipated. (When? http://connecticut.news12.com)

    Once we head towards next weekend, seasonal weather looks to return. So don't stray too far from the winter jackets just yet.


    The normal high temperature is at its the lowest for the year. We will gradually start seeing a rise in the normal temperatures as we continue through February. 



    WARM START TO FEBRUARY
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Friday, January 29, 2016

    Following a seasonably cool Saturday, temperatures will bounce back into the 40s for the final day of January. February will start off with a few mild days before turning cooler for the end of the week.




    LARGE OCEAN STORM
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Thursday, January 28, 2016

    As expected, a large ocean storm will pass too far to our east to impact southwestern Connecticut. It will be pushed out to sea by a disturbance moving through the area. This disturbance will be strong enough to produce some snow showers and a possible heavier snow squall which could make for some slippery spots. 





    CLOSE CALL
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Wednesday, January 27, 2016

    It still appears that the large storm will just miss us on Friday. The storm will be pushed to the east by a weaker disturbance crossing the Great Lakes. Some light snow or flurries could make for some slippery spots on Friday.







    OUT TO SEA (MOST LIKELY)
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Tuesday, January 26, 2016

    Our thinking remains the same on a late week storm threat. The storm will pass too far to our east to impact southwestern Connecticut. We'll keep an eye on it all week long!




    New Canaan Time Lapse 1/25/16

    National Weather Service Adjusts Bridgeport Snowfall Totals for 1-23-16

    Meteorologist Mike Rizzo @meteor_mike

    There has been a correction to some of the official numbers that have been released for the storm total amount of snowfall. Please see below information.


    New Snowfall Totals - Bridgeport has been adjusted from earlier estimations.

    Initially, Bridgeport's snowfall total was reported at 12". That was incorrect and the National Weather Service had adjusted the snowfall total at Bridgeport to 9.5". This number is considered the "official" number reported by the weather station at Bridgeport Sikorsky Airport. This 9.5" will be the number that represents this storm for southwestern Connecticut in the record books. This bat the previous record of 8.0" in 2005.

    Elsewhere, here are some of the largest totals. These numbers are unofficially reported to the National Weather Service. They represent the amount of snowfall that likely fell when compared to radar estimates and other data.

    Not all reported numbers will be reported since they are subject to review and an official analysis confirms whether there is some validity to those numbers.

    This information below has been released by the National Weather Service as unofficial observations:
    NORWALK 16.0 950 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
    DARIEN 16.0 600 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
    MILFORD 15.5 1000 PM 1/23 PUBLIC 
    GREENWICH 15.0 1124 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
    NORTH HAVEN 14.4 1115 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER
    WILTON 14.0 600 AM 1/24 PUBLIC
    EASTON 11.5 1005 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
    WEST HAVEN 11.5 1022 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
    RIDGEFIELD 10.0 1000 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
    2 ENE MERIDEN 8.0 930 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

    Fairfield Snow 1-23-2016

    How Much Longer?!
    Meteorologist Mike Rizzo @meteor_mike

    Boy, that northern shift really brought that snow! Areas just north of southwestern Connecticut aren't seeing as much snowfall as we are. Greenwich seems to be the bulls eye wit the largest accumulations thusfar. 

    The nor'easter will continue it's northeastwards heading out of the area this evening. Snowbands will pivot around some snow bands through the area this evening. The snow bands will increase the rate of which snow will fall. It is possible to see rates of snowfall as high as 1 - 2 inches per hour. 

    Direction of the storm's motion with risk to see heavy snow band development. 

    The snow's sharp edge will wipe through southwestern Connecticut tonight and push off to the east with the last few flakes near midnight. 


    In the end, we expect to see 10 - 20 inches across southern zones and areas along the 1-84 corridor and north will see less. 

    This forecast map shows Greenwich, Stamford, Darien, and eastern Norwalk will most likely see the largest amounts. 

    Expect cold temperatures overnight and quickly decreasing clouds. Tonight's low will be 20 degrees with gusty winds of 25-30 mph.

    The sun will come out tomorrow!
    SATURDAY STORM LATEST
    Friday, January 22, 2016

    A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect south of the Merritt. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect north of the Merritt. 


    A major winter storm is slamming the east coast. We will be on the northern edge of it with the heaviest impacts to our south. 




    STORM IMPACTS: Slippery travel, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and coastal flooding (High tide late morning and late evening). Expect a plowable snow with the heaviest accumulation in extreme southwestern Connecticut in areas closer to New York City. Most areas will pick up 6 to 9 inches with 2 to 6 inches farther north. 



    Winter What?
    @meteor_mike



    Here's a look at the official Watches/Warnings issued for the tristate area.

    Northeast NJ is under a Winter Storm Advisory which states that wintry weather is likely - but not expected to be as hazardous.

    Coastal CT and the lower Hudson Valley (with the exception of southern Westchester) are under a Winter Storm Watch which notes that conditions are FAVORABLE for a significant and hazardous winter storm.

    Parts of northern NJ and southern Westchester are under a Winter Storm Warning notes that a winter storm is evident and that travel may be impossible due to EXPECTED hazardous wintry weather.

    Long Island, NYC, central NJ, and south NJ are under a Blizzard Warning which includes the criteria for Winter Storm Warning in addition to very strong gusty winds of at least 35 mph, blowing snow, and visibility below 1/4 mile for three hours or more.

    So what does this mean?
    Advisory = Conditions Are Marginal, Be Aware!
    Watch = Conditions Favorable, Prepare!
    Warning = Conditions Expected, Take Action!
    STORM UPDATE
    Thursday, January 21, 2016

    A major coastal storm will work off the east coast on Saturday. Our thinking remains the same - this storm will have its greatest impact to our south. Southwestern Connecticut will near near the northern edge of the storm. Accumulations will be heavier near the coast, especially in areas closer to New York City. 

    An early projection is for 1 to 3 inches in most areas and 3 to 6 inches for extreme southwestern Connecticut. Any small shift in storm track will change these projections. 



    Wind gusts of 40+ mph are likely and coastal flooding is expected Saturday evening. High tide is around 11 PM.




    LIVING ON THE EDGE
    Wednesday, January 20, 2016

    I continue to stress that northern edge of this storm will have a very sharp cut off from little/no snow to plowable snow over a relatively short distance. If this line is over southwestern Connecticut, snow amounts will vary dramatically.

    To illustrate this, here's the output of one of the models (NAM model):
    This indicates very little snow near Danbury and a plowable snow closer to the shore. Essentially, a trip on route 7 from Danbury to Norwalk (about 25 miles) could go from nothing to very snowy. Keep in mind that this isn't a forecast - this is intended to demonstrate the range of possibilities with the storm.

    Based on this, a small shift of the storm to the north or south would dramatically change the results.

    I always encourage preparation based on potential impacts and not the amount of snow. Plan for slippery travel on Saturday with gusty winds and coastal flooding.

    Westport Time Lapse 1/19/16


    WEEKEND STORM UPDATE
    Tuesday, January 19, 2016

    There is plenty of buzz concerning the weekend storm threat. There's no question that there will be an east coast storm; however, the impact on southwestern Connecticut is to be determined.





    We will be near the northern edge of the storm. Dry air "eats away" at the snow along this northern edge. This will result in a sharp cutoff on the northern side of the storm. Over a short distance, accumulation will range from very little to "plowable" snow. 

    Odds are very high for a high impact winter storm for areas south of NYC. Our odds of a high impact storm in southwestern Connecticut will depend upon how far north the storm tracks. 

    MORE COLD AND WIND
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas
    Monday, January 18, 2016

    It'll be a cold and windy night across southwestern Connecticut. Lows will be in the teens, and feels like temps will be near zero.






    Snow to sun and cold! Time Lapse 1/18/16

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