News 12 Weather Extra

News 12 Connecticut Weather Extra

    WINTER WARMTH

    Winter arrives late Monday evening. Following a cool, "December-like" weekend, temperatures will warm up again for the beginning on winter. Records will be in jeopardy once again next week.

    This is one computer model projection for high temperatures (in blue) and low temperatures (in green) for Bridgeport.
    Image: WeatherBell Analytics 

    The standing record highs are in the upper 50s to near 60-degrees next week:
    Monday 12/21: 60° (1957)
    Tuesday 12/22: 60° (2013)
    Wednesday 12/23: 60° (2004)
    Thursday 12/24: 57° (1990)
    Friday 12/25: 59° (1964)

    COOL WEEKEND

    After a mild week, temperatures will drop for the weekend. It'll cool down quickly Friday evening; if you have plans Friday night, you'll need your heavier coat. Saturday's high will be around 40-degrees. This may seem cold given our recent warm weather; however, this is seasonable for this time of year.



    Lake effect snow will develop in upstate New York on Friday night. Snow will continue through Saturday night or Sunday morning. Over a foot of snow is likely in the most persistent bands.



    It is possible that the gusty, cold wind will carry some flurries or snow showers to southwestern Connecticut on Saturday.


    Timing Thursday's Rain

    DECEMBER WARMTH

    New record highs were set on each of the last four days. The records in Bridgeport go back to 1948.

    Saturday: 61°
    Sunday: 61°
    Monday: 60°
    Tuesday: 63°

    Temperatures have reached 60-degrees on four consecutive December days one other time in our period of records (starting in 1948): December 1 through December 4, 1998:
    12/1/98: 60°
    12/2/98: 60°
    12/3/98: 61°
    12/4/98: 72°

    Just like this year, the winter of 1998-99 had a strong El Niño.




    MILD WEATHER HANGS ON

    It will remain unseasonably mild for much of this week.


    Cooler weather will work in as we approach the weekend. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels; however, it will feel quite chilly considering how warm it has been lately.




    The normal (average) high is in the lower 40s for this time of year. Here's a look at highs over the next several days:






    Time Lapse For Monday, December 14

    Record highs are noted by the asterisk. We come close to breaking record highs for Monday once again.

    RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE

    The mercury will continue to rise over the weekend. Some record highs are in jeopardy as temperatures climb to around 60 through Monday.

    Saturday
    Forecast: 58°
    Record: 58° (2008)

    Sunday
    Forecast: 62°
    Record: 58° (1990)

    Monday
    Forecast: 62°
    Record: 58° (1991)

    Rain is likely late Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will stay above normal through most of next week.

    Redding Time Lapse 12/11/15

    MODERATE DROUGHT

    With a lack of substantial rainfall lately, the moderate drought continues in southwestern Connecticut.


    The drought situation is expected to improve due to a wetter than normal winter caused by El Niño.





    MILD DECEMBER WEATHER

    Mild weather will be the theme over the next several days. Temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60-degrees over the weekend. 


    This warmth will challenge records Saturday through Monday. These are the current records:
    • SATURDAY: 58 (2008)
    • SUNDAY: 58 (1990)
    • MONDAY: 58 (1991)


    The pleasant and dry weather continues on Wednesday.

    Here's the planning forecast:



    Highs will be right around 50-degrees:





    Some record highs will be challenged later this week.

    CLICK TO VOTE - do you like it warm or are you ready for winter?

    Fairfield Time Lapse 12/7/15

    ANOTHER MISS

    Another storm will miss southwestern Connecticut on Tuesday. On Monday afternoon, rain is falling in North Carolina and Virginia.

    Satellite / Radar 

    The projected weather map for Tuesday morning shows the storm tracking to our southeast.

    Tuesday 8 AM Map 

    For the calendar year 2015, southwestern Connecticut us running a rainfall deficit of 8 to 12 inches. The deficit at Bridgeport is over 9 inches for the year.










    Clouds arrive after sunset and they blanket the area this evening.
    Temperatures near 10PM should be in the mid-40s.
    Lows overnight should
    drop to the mid-30s.
    Clouds continue through Tuesday with some peeks of
    sun.
     


    El Nino

    This year’s milder start to the cold weather seasons can be attributed to a climate feature called El Nino. This climate pattern pushes a clever twist on the atmospheric pattern across the globe by altering typical seasonal patterns. Let’s discuss what exactly an El Nino is:

    Let’s take this story far from southwestern Connecticut and let’s start near the equator on the Pacific Ocean near Peru and Ecuador.

    The normal weather pattern for this region is very different from what we are used to here in Connecticut. The “jet stream” over us moves air from west to east, but down there, their version of our jet stream is called the “trade winds” which pushes air from east to west. Quite the opposite!

    In a normal scenario, the deep waters near Ecuador and Peru will warm because of its location near the equator (the warmest climate region on earth). The trade winds will then push the warm water across the Pacific Ocean. When the warmer waters push out of the way, the colder water under the warmer water ends up warming and the process repeats. Warmer waters encourage evaporation and could lead to storminess. Therefore, the western equatorial Pacific region normally finds warm waters and rainy weather. Whereas the eastern Pacific near Ecuador and Peru can often be drier.

    During an El Nino event, the trade winds slow down or completely reverse direction. This no longer pushes the warmer water to the western Pacific and the warmer water pools along the eastern Pacific near South and Central America. With the water unable to move west – the evaporation and stormy weather shifts from western Pacific to the eastern Pacific. Uh oh!

    In turn, this “pooling” of warmer water and increased moisture into the air can be caught into the southern jet stream which then forces wet weather and storms to develop along California and the southern United States!

    When the rainy and stormy weather reaches the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean, they can continue to trigger storms that eventually then ride up along the eastern coast. This could bring some close calls to wet weather here in southwestern Connecticut – and since storms from the south are typically “warmer” than storms from the north [because they are closer to the warmer climate] – it makes for a tricky forecast.

    Tricky? Why? Well as these storms move north – they can actually be influenced by the cooler weather up north! That means we can see some close calls between rain and snow, too! And not just near-misses.

    Also, warmer water warms the air above it. In winter-time, this warmer air surges farther north than normal and colder Canadian air has a harder time dipping down into the United States – thus limiting cold air outbreaks. However, this doesn’t mean cold outbreaks would be non-existent! It just means that chances for outbreaks decrease in El Nino events.

    According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this year’s El Nino can rank as one of the top three strongest El Nino events in recorded history since 1950.

    Based on the strength of the El Nino – it is expected to peak during our winter – which is summer in the southern Hemisphere, where the water will be warmest near Peru and Ecuador. It is forecast that weakening is likely to take place in our late spring with a neutral pattern by our early summer.

    So could this mean a milder winter for us?


    Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA 

    It looks likely! According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the three-month temperature outlook for December, January, and February shows at least a 40% chance for above seasonal temperatures here in southwestern Connecticut.

    It already seems to be the case here in southwestern Connecticut for autumn since it was the 2nd warmest autumn on record – falling behind 2011. Looking at December, we already had a week where temperatures were above seasonal, too!

    Given that this year’s El Nino is fairly strong through observation of the water temperatures and observed effects so far, now I ask you:

    Would you say that there is a likely possibility that the next few months could be warmer than seasonal?

    And that, folks, is what it’s like to think like a meteorologist – to examine, to infer, to analyze, and to hypothesize based on what we know – just to create a vision of what could be.

    Enjoy the weather!

    Meteorologist Mike Rizzo

    @meteor_mike

    fb.com/MikeRizzoWeather



    Sunny Sunday

    Feeling Mild! Temperatures supersede seasonal with highs in the lower 50s to finish a spectacular December weekend. The sunshine continues into Monday with a few clouds possible later in the day.




    Clear & Quiet Tonight

    Temperatures will fall to about 34 degrees here in southwestern Connecticut.

    Some areas north of the Merritt Parkway will reach the freezing mark or below [32 degrees]. These areas can also see the development of patchy fog and frost.

    Clear skies continue into Sunday with temperatures reaching above seasonal by the afternoon.

    Fairfield Time Lapse 12/4/15

    Temperatures will cool down close to freezing overnight. 


    The first weekend of December will be bright and mild. Enjoy!








    FRIDAY FORECAST

    Friday will be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday, but it won't be as windy. It'll be a nice wrap to the work week, and it'll warm up over the weekend.


    Friday Forecast 



    Three Day Forecast 




    MODERATE DROUGHT

    All of southwestern Connecticut remains in Moderate Drought.


    Drought Update - December 3, 2015 

    Bridgeport is running about a 9 inch rainfall deficit for the calendar year 2015.






    WARM AUTUMN

    In the world of meteorology, fall is defined by the months of September, October and November. This simplifies the record-keeping process.

    This fall (September 1 through November 30) was the second warmest on record in southwestern Connecticut. The records go back to 1948.

    Here's a sorted chart of the average temperature for September through November.

    Data: NOAA 


    This is a line graph of the average fall temperature from 1948 through 2015.

    Data: NOAA 

    Redding Time Lapse December 2, 2015

    MORE RAIN

    Wednesday will be another wet day here in southwestern Connecticut. It'll dry out and turn breezy on Thursday.




    It was a warm and dry November across southwestern Connecticut. Total rainfall was just over an inch for the entire month, which is over two inches below normal. The moderate drought continues across our area.

    In terms of temperature, it was the fourth warmest November on record in Bridgeport. The records go back to 1948.


    15 Warmest Novembers based on average temperature (Bridgeport) / NOAA 

    2015 has been a year of extremes. It was a cold start to 2015. February was the coldest on record, and March was the third coldest on record. After that, things warmed up. May was the second warmest on record. It was the second warmest August on record, and it was the warmest September on record for Bridgeport.


    Stormy Day in Westport

    December arrives on a stormy note Tuesday. You'll need the umbrella over the next couple of days, but the snow shovels can stay in the shed for now. 

    Light showers are expected late tonight into Tuesday morning. We are closely watching the thermometer as some areas along and north of the Merritt will be close to the freezing mark early Tuesday. As a result, some icy spots are possible when the rain begins to fall.


    Overnight Lows 


    Showers at 5 AM 

    Off and on showers are likely Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday. It'll dry out on Thursday.



    A storm is developing over the great plains, rich in gulf moisture. This storm should move up into the northeast for Tuesday and Wednesday and the umbrellas will be needed all day Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. The rain should be mainly steady, light and moderate. There is a chance for it to turn heavy going into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The chances for rain decrease into Wednesday afternoon with lingering clouds before clearing skies on Wednesday night into Thursday. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 50s. 


    Overnight lows will drop into the 30s. it will be closer to 32 north of the Merritt Parkway and closer to 37 south of the Merritt. Expect colder air to filter in with northwesterly winds. It remains mostly cloudy overnight with slowly decreasing clouds. We wake up on Sunday with a few lingering clouds but it turns sunny for the remainder of the day. 


    Hazy sunshine is the story for today. 

    Sky conditions will turn cloudy overnight into Saturday. Saturday is expected to be unsettled as a cold front moves towards the area. The cold front is likely to bring cloudy skies with mist through the day. The mist will be on and off at times and there may be a quick drizzle in the afternoon. The front is expected to stay mostly dry as it comes through. The weather turns colder but sunnier for Sunday.


    Going shopping? Here's your shopcast!
    Black Friday overnight forecast. 


    MILD THANKSGIVING

    The warming trend will continue on Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

    Temperatures will warm through the 40s into the 50s during the morning football games. For your walk after dinner, temperatures will be mild. Have a great holiday! 

    Thanksgiving Forecast 





    TRAVEL OUTLOOK

    There is good news for those with travel plans on Wednesday. The weather will be quiet across southwestern Connecticut and most of the country. The projected weather map for Wednesday afternoon shows dry weather across the eastern half of the country. Thunderstorms are possible in Texas, and snow is likely in the Rockies.




    COLD NIGHT

    Following a gusty and cool Monday, temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight. Overnight lows will be in the 20s across southwestern Connecticut.

    Here's a look at HyperLocal lows across our area:



    Monday will be the coldest day of the season so far! Expect wind chills and cold temperatures in the morning. Highs in the afternoon reach 42 degrees but wind chills make it feel like 35 by then.
    #PackTheJacket

    Saturday is a very pleasant day that features a subtle southeasterly wind and clear skies. The temperatures will be falling into the lower 40s before a deck of clouds approaches this evening. This deck of clouds foreshadows the arrival of a weakening cold front expected to sweep past southwestern Connecticut overnight. This will spark a light drizzle or passing shower during the overnight hours and the deck of clouds prevents temperatures from falling below 40 degrees. Sunday opens up with a few clouds before clearing into the late morning. The sunshine continues through the next week with a few nightly clouds. The cold air mass settles by Sunday night into Monday where lows reach 30, feeling like 20 with the northerly wind. Monday is the coldest day of the week, a high of 44. A peak to Thanksgiving, highs will be back above seasonal, in the mid-50s.
    NICE FRIDAY

    Following a soaking rain Thursday night, things are looking up for Friday. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s across southwestern Connecticut.

    Enjoy!


    Friday Planning Forecast 



    Friday HyperLocal Forecast 






    Time Lapse November 18, 2015

    WET THURSDAY

    Here's a look at your rainy Thursday. Rain will be heaviest during the afternoon and evening. The evening commute will be damp; large puddles and localized flooding will be possible.  Over an inch of rain is likely across the area.














    COOL DOWN UNDERWAY

    Following a mild Monday across southwestern Connecticut, temperatures will drop like a rock by Tuesday morning. Wake up temperatures will be near freezing in many communities. The kids will need the heavy coats for the bus stop.

    Temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to reach the 50-degree mark.

    Highs for Tuesday 


    Three Day Forecast 
    A cold front arrives on Thursday...

    ...bringing moderate rain to southwestern Connecticut. For now, it's too soon to tell how much rain will fall, but at of now, it looks like it can be a fairly good amount. Dust off those umbrellas by Wednesday evening and don't forget them as you head out on Thursday. The rain should end going into Friday morning.
    Expect a line of showers to arrive on Thursday evening into Friday early morning.  


    Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly above seasonal as the jet stream rises north and east of our area, allowing for milder to be pulled into southwestern Connecticut. Expect partly cloudy conditions for Wednesday and changing conditions on Thursday. 

    This weather pattern changes on Thursday...
    A "ridge" in the jet stream is responsible for the above mentioned weather pattern. 


    As a high pressure to the north moves into Eastern Quebec, we will see some northeasterly winds!

    When this happens, we often see colder air inject into the region - think a cold front but backwards! Since cold fronts normally move from west to east, this one is moving from east to west - we call this a "back door" cold front. 

    Expect highs on Tuesday to reach near 50 degrees. It's similar to Saturday but without the windy conditions.
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