News 12 Weather Extra

News 12 Connecticut Weather Extra

    A Touch Warmer And Quiet

    Today’s weather will be pleasant with seasonal temperatures reaching 65 degrees. The sky will be partly sunny today with a thin layer of clouds through the mid-morning and into the afternoon. There may be some thicker clouds too but none will produce any rain. It will continue to be breezy but not as breezy today, with winds from the NNE at 10 – 15 mph. The sky clears overnight tonight with a low of 49 degrees. We’re warming up through the work week as we will see more sunshine and calmer winds. Tuesday’s high will reach 70 along with Wednesday and likely Thursday. Our next chance for rain comes on Friday night into Saturday as a wave of rain showers reaches southwestern Connecticut from the west.

    Monday's Sunshine!

    Monday will be Partly Sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. It will be a touch cooler than our seasonal average for this time of year but it will be overall pleasant. Winds will begin to get gradually calmer going into Tuesday.

    The tides will come close to 10 feet and only affect vulnerable low-lying coastal areas. Expect this to continue through the start of the week.

    A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for coastal areas of southwestern Connecticut until Sunday evening for gusty winds that will influence high tides.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK - COASTAL FLOOD THREAT

    The weekend is starting on a damp note. Most of the rain this weekend will fall Friday night. Some leftover showers are possible on Saturday, especially during the morning. 

    The gusty wind will stick around all weekend. Wind gusts from the northeast will reach 30 to 35 mph.

    A coastal flood advisory is in effect for Saturday afternoon.  High tide is around 4 P.M. No significant flooding is expected.






    HURRICANE JOAQUIN OUT TO SEA

    The latest track from the National Hurricane Center takes Hurricane Joaquin out to sea. On this path, there would be no impact on southwestern Connecticut. 


    Joaquin Track 

    We'll continue to closely monitor the storm all weekend!

    Here's a look at the outlook for the afternoon. Drops all day! It will remain breezy. Don't forget about the higher high tides and minor coastal flooding in low-lying coastal areas this afternoon. You can thank the easterly winds!

    Don't worry too much about Joaquin - the track continues to be forecast to the east, which sends the storm out to sea. Minor inconsistencies are still present but will be carefully monitored for any changes.

    MODEL MADNESS CONTINUES

    What a dramatic change in the computer model output from Wednesday to Thursday! 

    On Wednesday, a number of models were indicating a landfall near the Carolinas. The National Hurricane Center official track was pointing to a landfall along the east coast.  By Wednesday night and Thursday, the models are showing the storm tracking to our east. Now, the official forecast from the NHC takes the storm to our east.

    It should be noted that hurricanes are notoriously difficult to forecast. Significant errors can occur, especially four to five days out.  I wrote yesterday that the "key" to the forecast of a Carolina landfall is the upper level low over the southeast "capturing" the storm and pulling it inland. The modeling has shifted away from that being the most likely outcome. 

    There is still potential for some impact here in southwestern Connecticut, so we need to keep an eye on things. If the storm makes landfall along the coast to our south, we would experience some impacts due to the hurricane's interaction with other systems. Obviously if the storm makes landfall nearby, the impacts would be more significant. If the storm heads out to sea, the impacts could be minimal to none depending on how far out to sea the track is.

    It'll be gusty for the next few days no matter what happens with Joaquin.


    Official Track from National Hurricane Center 



    A sampling of computer model tracks for Joaquin 

    COOL & DAMP FRIDAY - MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
    -Meteorologist Garett Argianas

    While there is plenty of focus on Hurricane Joaquin and the storm's potential impact on the east coast, we should not lose focus on the unsettled weather forecast for Friday. Periods of rain are likely through the day. The rain may be heavy at times. It'll be cool and raw with a gusty NNE wind. We already experienced coastal flooding on Thursday, and we are expecting additional high water around the time of high tide on Friday. The high tide times are around 3 A.M. and 3 P.M.








    CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN

    It is a serious situation in the Bahamas as dangerous Hurricane Joaquin is slamming the region with tropical rain, wind gusts of 160 mph and rough surf.


    Hurricane Joaquin 

    Here is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. The forecast track is much farther east than yesterday.






    Category 3 Hurricane Jaoquin

    ...has intensified and is expected to turn north and ride along the coast. The forecast track remains uncertain as model guidance is still inconsistent and questionable (A couple of reliable outliers are partly contributing to the uncertainty). Ultimately, the storm will exit through the northeast ->IF
    Currently, steering winds are indicating that the storm could "wobble" as it tracks up along the coast.
    Will the effects be strong? That is still in question.

    For now, thinking of making basic preparations wouldn't hurt.

    HYPERLOCAL FORECAST:
    Expect clouds and breezy conditions through today. Rain for tomorrow (Friday) and more clouds for Saturday.

    HURRICANE JOAQUIN - What is the most likely impact on southwestern Connecticut?
    Meteorologist Garett Argianas

    The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center and the majority of hurricane model forecasts indicate that the storm will make landfall near the Carolina coast. On this path, the worst of the storm will miss us; however, some local impacts are still likely as Joaquin interacts with other players in the atmosphere.


    Windy Weekend 

    An area of strong high pressure will build across eastern Canada over the weekend. As the hurricane works up the coast, this will create a large pressure gradient (difference in air pressure over a distance) across the northeast. This pressure gradient creates wind; therefore, a high pressure gradient results in stronger winds. At this point, it appears that wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph. This wind forecast will likely be revised in the coming days as the projections become clearer.

    The strong, persistent easterly wind will force water into Long Island Sound. Moderate coastal flooding is possible around the time of high tide all weekend into early next week.

    Periods of showers/rain are most likely in the Sunday to Monday time frame.  Typically, the heaviest rain falls in areas along and to the left of the storm track.

    HURRICANE JOAQUIN UPDATE - Meteorologist Garett Argianas - Wednesday, September 30

    The key to the track of Hurricane Joaquin is an upper-level low that is projected to be over the southeastern United States this weekend. This upper-level low (essentially a counter-clockwise whirlpool of air) is expected to "capture" the hurricane as it tracks up the coast and shift the storm track to the west. This would bring the storm into the central east coast.  

    The red line below represents the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 PM Wednesday. You can see how the storm track bends to the west on the periphery of the upper-level low. 



    Steering Currents for Hurricane Joaquin 



    Here's a look at a number of computer model projections:


    Joaquin Model Tracks 

    The computer models are favoring a landfall somewhere in the Carolinas. The NHC official track has shifted west over the past 24 hours likely due to the clustering of computer model solutions.  If this trend continues, expect the official track to shift farther west in later forecasts.

    It should be noted that some models never turn the storm to the north. This possibility seems less likely, but cannot be ignored.  

    A landfall somewhere in Virginia to the Carolinas is the most likely outcome; however, plenty can change four to five days out. We'll keep you posted!


    Blood Supermoon Viewing

    The Blood Supermoon will be seen high in the southeastern sky during the eclipse. A supermoon is typically 14% larger in appearance and brighter since its orbit brings it closer to the earth. However, when the eclipse starts at 8:11PM the moon will begin to get darker as it slowly dips into the shadows of our planet.

    The moon will begin turning “red” at 10:11. Red light from the sun’s spectrum is able to make it through to the side of the earth facing away from the Sun because of the refraction of light on our atmosphere! (#HowCoolIsThat?!)

    The sun will then align perfectly with the earth and moon at 10:47PM where you will see the 'Full Eclipse' stage – where the moon will be fully red.

    The moon will then slowly lose its color and become brighter after 10:47PM and the eclipse will conclude at 11:23PM.

    High and thin clouds are expected to be out this evening and this will blur the clarity of the moon, but breaks in these clouds will provide a clearer sight of the moon. Don’t expect a thick overcast – but also don’t expect a clear and perfect sky.

    A Blood Supermoon is not expected to return until October 8, 2033 – but only fully visible from the West Coast of the USA! So get out there, try to snap photos, and just simply enjoy!

    Higher High Tides!

    MINOR COASTAL FLOODING is expected along western Connecticut coastal regions with tides about 0.5 ft to 1 ft above standard high tide heights. This is expected for tonight, Sunday morning, and Sunday evening as a result of lunar influences and easterly winds.

    Lunar influences? The moon is closer to Earth tomorrow - known as perigee.

    A rare “Blood Supermoon” will occur on Sunday night and be visible from southwestern Connecticut.

    Supermoons occur when the moon orbits closest to the earth, providing a brighter appearance that also looks on average 14% larger than your typical moon. A lunar eclipse occurs when the moon falls into the earth’s shadow – giving the lunar surface a red appearance, often dubbed as a blood moon.

    What makes this event “rare”? It is the concurrence of a supermoon and a lunar eclipse. Only 5 supermoon lunar eclipses occurred since 1900 (1910, 1928, 1946, 1964, 1982).

    The eclipse will begin at 8:11PM on Sunday with a darkening moon and the total eclipse will start at 10:11PM but peak at 10:47PM. Don’t wait too long to check it out, because the full eclipse will end near 11:23PM.

    Currently the forecast calls for some broken clouds – but the sky won’t be an overcast. So there will be opportunity to check out the moon.
    Hazy Sunshine

    Filtered sunshine will continue through Saturday evening with some breaks of blue skies. The sun will set at 6:41PM leaving a few clouds to linger overnight. Sunday opens with a mix of higher thin clouds and sunshine. The wind will continue to be breezy through Sunday – coming from the northeast at about 10 – 20mph. Broken cloud cover arrives on Sunday night – along with a supermoon lunar eclipse. This will occur starting at 10:11 PM. Temperatures through Sunday will max near 70 degrees. Monday will be slightly warmer with a chance for afternoon sprinkles. Tuesday offers a better chance for showers through the day. A cold front will then swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday – taking the showers with it. It turns partly sunny from Wednesday to Friday.
    #SweaterWeather

    A pattern change brings sweater weather mornings and evenings to southwestern Connecticut. It’s that time of the year where lows drop down into the upper 40s in parts of our area. Highs this week will be trending seasonable and cooler than the last. Highs for Monday will reach 71 degrees with breezy and dry conditions. Monday night features more clouds as a storm develops to the south. We don’t expect to see this storm – just some of the clouds from it. Sun and clouds will be the story as we go through the next week along with dry and seasonal temperatures. The autumn season starts on Wednesday morning, roughly 2 days away.
    High thin clouds on Saturday are signs of a cold front that is approaching the area for the overnight hours. A very small and brief sprinkle is possible – but unlikely as the system is moving to the northeast, pulling the bulk of the moisture northeast with it. A few sprinkles are expected overnight and into Sunday morning but then increasing sunshine through the day. Dry weather continues through the next week but with a catch. The dry air coming in from behind the cold front overnight will have low humidity. It will also be breezy on Sunday and Monday. Since the ground is parched – it is likely there could be an increased risk for fire weather. Outdoor flames should be monitored and extinguished immediately if one sparks. Temperatures also moderate cooler and near seasonal through next week.
    Hiccups

    Today is the last day of the hiccup amongst the sunshine! A few stray showers are expected this late afternoon and early evening but we are not expecting a wash out. The conditions will turn relatively drier for the next week, again. Tonight’s low temperature drops to 57 degrees with clear skies. The winds will begin to become breezy by Monday morning and the high will be slightly above seasonal at 77 degrees. Any boaters out on the waters can expect choppy waves up to 2 – 3 feet in the Long Island Sound along with gusts as high as 15 kts. The temperature increases to the lower and mid 80s by midweek this week under sunshine and the next chance for rain is hinted beyond the 7 day forecast – on Sunday.
    Fall Is Around The Corner!


    Sunshine will continue through Tuesday where humidity increases gradually across the area into Wednesday. The humidity begins to destabilize the atmosphere by Wednesday where we cannot rule out a chance to see some puffy clouds develop into scattered showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday starts off dry with a slight breeze and then there will be small chances for showers in the afternoon and early evening. A cold front begins to narrow into southwestern Connecticut by Thursday where we can expect rain late in the day on Thursday lasting overnight into Friday. Friday’s conditions gradually, yet slowly improves where we can see increasing sunshine. Temperatures also drop towards the end of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs push closer towards 90 degrees. The front drops the temperatures to the lower 80s for Friday and the upper 70s for the weekend. There is a small possibility to see a pop up shower on Saturday afternoon but chances are decreasing as high pressure is expected to push through for the weekend before rain chances approach on Monday.
    Sunny Sunday

    Sunday was beautifully warm! Highs reached the upper 80s under clear and sunny skies. The wind is now coming from the southwest and it will be slowly raising the humidity through the first half of the week. Labor Day will be warm again with a high of 87 degrees. Clear skies continue into Tuesday with more sunshine and noticeable humidity. There will be more clouds on Wednesday mixed with the sunshine and then a cold front swings through late on Thursday night into Friday, providing some rain through Friday morning. The clouds linger through the weekend along with some cooler temperatures, likely to be more seasonal for the weekend. Today’s forecast calls for decreasing chances for rain for next Saturday.
    Labor Day Forecast

    Labor Day weekend is going to be fantastic all across southwestern Connecticut. We expect highs to top out into the lower 80s through Sunday and Monday but a slight increase of humidity by Monday. The sun will shine all weekend where some more clouds are expected for Tuesday. The week ahead is mostly dry except towards the weekend where a disturbance moves through to the area on Thursday night into Friday where we can expect increasing cloud cover and a good chance for showers. As of now, the weather takes a turn for next weekend in the way of clouds and more seasonal temperatures with highs near 78 degrees.
    The Heat Is On!

    Hazy sunshine continues into the evening where a few clouds will pop up that could bring a chance for a stray shower. Some afternoon stray showers already crossed through Greenwich but only bringing a light sprinkle – not even a drizzle. The clouds continues to pass through overnight as a disturbance moved across the Ohio Valley through Pennsylvania and into our area. This will improve by Monday morning where clear skies and plenty of sunshine will start the day. The highs on Monday rise close to 90 across southwestern Connecticut. Some areas may see 92 degrees if given enough sunshine. The humidity will be high too but not high enough to trigger a Heat Advisory at this time. Overnight lows stay relatively mild with sticky conditions at 70 degrees. The heat continues through the week with chances for late afternoon pop up showers on Monday and Wednesday.
    Southwesterly Winds

    The wind is coming from the south-southwest through Sunday. We will see somewhat muggy conditions and warm temperatures. More clouds increase on Sunday afternoon and evening where a small chance for a pop of shower is possible anywhere across southwestern Connecticut. The overall forecast is dry moving into the midweek. Expect highs to reach 90 by Wednesday.
    Let's talk Tropics...

    Erika is moving west-northwest over the island of Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) where the mountainous terrain is expected to weaken the storm as it passes through. It could weaken enough to just a tropical depression after passing Hispaniola.

    Erika is likely to regain some strength as a tropical storm as it tracks towards Florida. It would only intensity to a stronger Tropical Storm but it is unlikely to strengthen to a Category 1 Hurricane.

    The cone of uncertainty extends across Florida which could place the exact track of the storm anywhere between western Florida and Eastern Florida - yet Florida is expected to see stormy weather.

    High pressure (fair, sunny, and not stormy weather) lingers over the eastern portion of the country. This has potential to keep the storm to the south as we continue through next week – preventing or stalling the storm’s motion up the Gulf Stream towards the northeast.

    Florida and portions of the deep south are likely to be in for a few rainy, windy, and cloudy days through next week.

    If Erika makes landfall in Florida, it would be the first tropical system to make landfall in Florida since Wilma in October 2005.

    A beautiful weekend is in store!
    ...But we can say goodbye to these refreshing conditions as some humidity is expected to increase through Saturday afternoon and Sunday. The temperatures will also begin rising through midweek next week.

    A batch of high pressure - known as fair weather - will be vacationing over the us for the next week. Plenty of sunshine ahead, so if you missed it yesterday AND today - it'll be there tomorrow!

    But what about hiccups in the forecast? Monday afternoon - a stray shower or sprinkle is possible - but nothing truly noticeable. Same for Wednesday!

    Refreshing & Cooler

    The air is very refreshing and cooler – our highs this afternoon struggle rise higher than 81 degrees. Low tonight will be dropping down to a cooler 59 degrees and some of our northern communities may be as low as 56 degrees. This will be chilly for some people who are sensitive to cooler temperatures. Friday opens up sunny again with a mix of a few fluffy clouds. Friday’s high will be 79 degrees. An area of high pressure to the west is to thank for this gorgeous weather. It is a mass of Canadian air that will slowly push through this weekend. By Saturday night and into Sunday the winds begin to shift coming from the southwest and west and this results in a slight increase of humidity. A weak front looks to come close to the area on Sunday night into Monday and that could bring a chance for a stray shower. Temperatures next week average out to about 85 degrees with the continuation of a mostly quiet weather pattern.
    Walking on Sunshine

    If we can call any weather pattern perfect for the end of August…this would be it. We are seeing lasting sunshine for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The humidity is low with a breeze from the W-NW and highs in the lower 80s. A slightly cooler feel will be the weather story for Thursday and Friday where highs will be refreshing barely making it any warmer than 80 degrees. The nightly lows will be in the lower 60s and even the upper to mid-50s north of the Merritt Parkway. Combine that with low humidity – it will feel refreshingly cool – a taste of autumn indeed. Winds calm for Thursday and Friday to be light and variable before changing to be southwest – southerly on Saturday and Sunday. This will slowly inject more humidity where some more fluffy clouds mixed with sunshine can be expected for the weekend. The weekend’s highs will be warmer at about 83 and 84 degrees respectively. The next chance for some scattered rain showers will be Sunday into Monday as a potential front can be in sight.

    Where's the rain!?!

    This week had been an interesting weather week! With a "retrograding" front on Sunday - to a bulk of rain the grazing past southwestern Connecticut in Westchester and Putnam counties this morning. Now we see more in the way of sunshine and warmer than forecast temperatures. Highs this afternoon will reach close to 85 degrees.

    A chance for scattered pop-up showers this evening remains for everyone but there is some dry and somewhat stable air in place to the west - I see these pop up showers more likely for our eastern communities - but just keep an eye to the sky for a billowing cumulus clouds later this afternoon/evening.

    Taste of Autumn
    The sunset was beautiful once again this evening! We saw tonight's
    clouds in the distance.
    A mostly cloudy overnight with sprinkles leaves
    way for a day of scattered rain showers tomorrow.
    Don't expect a
    wash-out but expect some rain in the area that could be moderate between
    10AM and 2PM.
    The last of the showers end after 5PM.

    Muggy, Warm, Sunny

    Humid and unsettled weather lingers over southwestern Connecticut for Monday – It’s hard to tell as the skies are broken with peeks of sunshine and scattered clouds. More clouds will increase overnight into Tuesday where a cold front approaches from the west. There is a chance for some showers on Tuesday morning and then the likelihood for moderate rain and a weak thunderstorm increases for the midday. The front slowly pushes eastwards out of the area by sunset and the skies will clear going into Wednesday. Wednesday opens up sunny and crisp with low humidity – very autumn-like. A blocking pattern keeps the fair weather over southwestern Connecticut for the ending of this week. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs near 81 degrees for Thursday and Friday with lows in the mid-60s.

    Another day with temperatures slightly below average.

    Periods of heavy rain may cause flooding on Tuesday.

    There is a slight risk of severe weather as heavy rain and gusty winds are in the forecast for Tuesday as low pressure drags a cold front across the region. By Wednesday, high pressure will return us to pleasant summer weather.

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